华泰证券电新24年展望:海风、国内大储高景气 关注新技术

Huatai Securities Telecom's 24-year outlook: sea breezes, high domestic reserves, focus on new technology

Zhitong Finance ·  11/07/2023 09:36

Demand for new energy vehicles is improving

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that demand for new energy vehicles is improving,Overcapacity temporarily suppresses profitability, focusing on battery leaders, new growth indicators, and new technologies such as composite foils, lithium manganese iron phosphate, and fast charging, Alpha. Photovoltaic link, demand is booming, and advanced production capacity is still scarceIt is recommended to configure granular silicon with the properties of new technology, representative manufacturers of new battery technology, silicon wafers, and integrated component sectors. Wind power sector,There is strong certainty about the 24-year growth of sea breezes, the sector has configuration value. It is recommended to focus on the leading submarine cable link and the tower link. The energy storage process,Domestic reserves maintain a high level of prosperityIt is recommended to pay attention to the head PCS, temperature control, and large storage transformers.

▍ The main views of Huatai Securities are as follows:

New energy vehicles: the main industry chain focuses on profit bottoming out opportunities, and new technology depends on the pace of industry progress

Driven by high quality supply in the domestic market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to rise. In particular, major markets such as A-class cars are expected to become the main source of growth; the US market base is low, and it is expected to increase rapidly with policy support, and demand in the European market is recovering, or growing steadily.

Plagued by overcapacity this year, the lithium battery industry chain is generally facing declining prices and profitability. Profitability may remain under pressure in the short term, but fierce competition will help clear production capacity and optimize the pattern in the long term. Profitability may be expected to bottom out in some sectors next year. It is recommended to wait for an inflection point in industry profitability. It is recommended to focus on 1) Battery leaders with clear comprehensive competitive advantages and relatively stable profitability; 2) Lithium battery business profitability has bottomed out, with targets for new businesses with high growth; 3) Composite foils, lithium iron phosphate, and fast charging technologies direction.

Photovoltaics: Demand side boom continues, focus on investment opportunities brought about by technological change

On the demand side, the boom in downstream demand continued in '23. According to the National Energy Administration, 113.16 GW of new PV capacity was added from January to August, an increase of 154.46% over the previous year, more than 22 years. On the supply side, the problem of overcapacity in the industrial chain is gradually becoming apparent. Industry competition is “technology is king”, and advanced N-type battery technology began to be deployed on a large scale in '23.

Looking ahead to the next 24 years, it is expected that advanced production capacity with technological cost advantages will still be scarce, granular silicon has a leading cost advantage, new battery technology has blossomed, and N-type technology has all entered the mass production stage. The silicon wafer industry has increased with the barriers of N-type technology, and industry leaders with technology and quartz sand security and supply capabilities will maintain their competitive advantage. It is recommended to configure granular silicon and new battery technology with new technological attributes to represent manufacturers, silicon wafers, and integrated component sectors.

Wind power: Seabreeze installed capacity is expected to nearly double in '24. Focus on submarine cables and tower piles

The large-scale expansion of wind power continues to accelerate. At this stage, the stand-alone capacity of onshore and offshore fans has exceeded the level of 15/22MW, driving further improvement in project economy. With the advancement of major scenic base projects and the exposure of restrictive factors such as offshore wind power use at sea and waterways, domestic onshore and offshore wind power is expected to reach 70/13.5 GW in 24, an increase of 17%/93% over the previous year.

Looking at the current situation, there is strong certainty about the 24-year growth of sea breezes, and the sector has allocation value. It is recommended to focus on: 1) leading enterprises in the submarine cable industry with an increase in unit value and an excellent pattern; 2) processing costs are expected to be boosted by high demand.

Energy storage: Domestic large reserves maintain a high level of prosperity, and household storage waits for storage to be completed

Domestic large storage bidding continues to be popular. Prices of silicon and lithium fell markedly in '23, increasing the scale that can be invested in photovoltaics. Competitive allocation+market-based grid integration will lead to an increase in the allocation ratio and bring a boom in prosperity. At the same time, increased technical requirements and scale effects have brought about elasticity in rising profits. The volume connected to the grid in 23/24 is expected to be +184%/85% compared to the same period. Considering performance elasticity and competition, it is recommended to focus on the PCS, temperature control, and large storage transformers. In Europe, during the year, the slowdown in shipments was used to remove warehouses, and terminal installations continued to rise.

Considering the transmission of electricity prices and the pace of dewarehousing, the inflection point may have been seen in early '24; prices may have declined as competition intensified. High interest rates in the US market are increasing the cost of large savings loans and disrupting the pace of installation. Demand is not going away. ITC and battery price cuts may hedge some of the effects, and we are optimistic about medium- to long-term demand growth.

Risk warning:

The growth in NEV production and sales volume fell short of expectations, and industry chain profits fell short of expectations; the growth rate of photovoltaic installations fell short of expectations, and the intensity of industry competition exceeded expectations; the risk of wind power installations falling short of expectations and rapid rise in upstream raw material prices; energy storage capacity fell short of expectations, and progress in implementing related policies fell short of expectations.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment