If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) share price is up 44% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 8.1%.
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
See our latest analysis for Union Pacific
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Union Pacific's earnings per share are down 7.3% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
The revenue growth of 2.4% per year hardly seems impressive. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Union Pacific is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Union Pacific will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Union Pacific's TSR for the last 5 years was 60%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Union Pacific shareholders gained a total return of 11% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 10% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Union Pacific has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Of course Union Pacific may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.