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After Leaping 34% Transphorm, Inc. (NASDAQ:TGAN) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 4, 2023 08:13

Those holding Transphorm, Inc. (NASDAQ:TGAN) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 34% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 63% share price drop in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Transphorm's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 9.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to other companies in the Semiconductor industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios below 3.7x and even P/S below 1.3x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Check out our latest analysis for Transphorm

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqCM:TGAN Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry November 4th 2023

How Has Transphorm Performed Recently?

Transphorm hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Transphorm.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Transphorm's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 34%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 6.0% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 75% as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. With the industry only predicted to deliver 45%, the company is positioned for a stronger revenue result.

In light of this, it's understandable that Transphorm's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has lead to Transphorm's P/S soaring as well. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Transphorm's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior revenue outlook is contributing to its high P/S. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/S as they are quite confident future revenues aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Transphorm (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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