The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the global smart meter market pattern is scattered, regional standards vary, and power grid companies have different bidding thresholds. Major overseas watch companies Landis+Gyr, Itron, and Elster mainly focus on high-end markets in developed countries such as Europe and the US, while Chinese watch companies are actively going overseas with their cost and channel advantages, and their market share in developing countries is higher. At the same time, they have recently achieved breakthroughs in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America, seizing more market share among overseas multinational watch companies and local watch manufacturers. The focus is on recommending core manufacturers that have been deployed overseas for many years, have various qualifications, strong localized service capabilities, complete supply chains, and extensive channels.

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Guojin Securities's views are as follows:

The importance of smart meters? —The basic equipment for data collection of power systems in various regions accounts for the highest investment in all links, and is being carried out simultaneously with the intelligent transformation of power grids

Smart meters undertake remote data collection and transmission tasks for raw electricity. Compared with ordinary electricity meters, smart meters have significant advantages. The share of intelligent investment in electricity consumption is often higher than that of other links such as power distribution, substation, and transmission. Referring to the rules of global power grid development, smart meter promotion nodes are generally in the initial stage of smart grid construction. What is the recent export situation of smart meters? ——In January-August of this year, exports amounted to 6.5 billion yuan, +31% year-on-year, and are expected to reach the highest level in history throughout 2023.

Asia/Europe/Africa are the main export regions, and the cumulative historical export value accounts for 39%/30%/22%. In January-August of this year, exports from Asia, Europe, and Africa were 18.26/1.5 billion yuan, +19%/+53%/+32% over the same period last year, showing explosive growth. Apart from post-epidemic order recovery factors, strong demand in various regions was mainly due to:

Europe: Smart meters can reduce energy consumption, reduce costs and increase efficiency for European grid companies, and a high proportion of new energy sources further catalyze the acceleration of smart grid upgrading. However, in Europe, the penetration rate is only 56%. Among them, the promotion rate in North/Western Europe is relatively fast (penetration rate > 80%), and progress in Central, East/Southeast Europe is lagging behind (penetration rate < 20%), so many governments have forced the large-scale promotion of first-generation smart meters, and some countries have also entered the stage of deploying second-generation smart meters.

Africa: The electricity shortage problem is relatively serious. More than 40% of residents have no access to electricity. In the future, increasing the electrification rate will be the main development goal. It is planned to achieve a rural electrification rate of 51% by 2030, and investment in power grid infrastructure is expected to increase rapidly. Most power companies in Africa purchase smart meters mainly to secure electricity bill revenue (prevent electricity theft) and reduce manual meter reading costs, so as to make continuous investment in power grids with sufficient return of capital.

Asia: The East Asian market is more mature, mainly deploying second-generation smart meters; most countries in West Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia have a smart meter penetration rate of less than 10%. As the urbanization process accelerates and electricity demand grows strongly, it has now entered the large-scale installation of smart meters in the early stages of power infrastructure construction.

Latin America: It has about 187 million electricity customers, but the penetration rate of smart meters is only 6%. Preventing electricity theft losses is the main driving force for smart meter investment.

How sustainable will overseas smart meters be in the future? ——Most key countries have set medium- to long-term growth targets, and demand for smart meter installation in various regions persists for a long time.

Europe: ① Western Europe: The British government aims for a penetration rate of 80% of households and 73% of businesses in 2025 (currently 57%); the French government will force households to install smart meters from 2023; ② Northern Europe: Finland's second-generation electricity meter project will continue until 2025 (current second-generation penetration rate 40%); ③ Central Europe: mandatory promotion by German law, target 20%/50%/95% penetration rate at the end of 2025/28/30, respectively; Poland aims to reach 80% of residents in 2028;

Asia: ① East Asia: China, Japan, and South Korea started early, and are currently in the old meter replacement cycle; ② West Asia: Saudi Arabia has planned “Vision 2030” and deployed the world's largest smart meter project in one go; Oman/Qatar will deploy 1.2 million/600,000 smart meters within the next five years; ③ Southeast Asia: Indonesia has set a schedule to cooperate with China on an intelligent advanced metering system project; Malaysia plans to equip 9.1 million households with smart meters in 2026.

Africa: A target for achieving electricity coverage by 2030 has been set. Currently, first-generation smart meters are progressing relatively fast in North/South/East Africa. Demand is strong in Egypt, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Prepaid meters and anti-theft meters are the mainstream direction.

Latin America: Brazil's smart meters are expected to increase from 5.7% in 2022 to 21.5% in 2028. China's cost-effective meter products are being promoted smoothly.

Risk warning:Domestic and foreign meter tenders fell short of expectations, grid investment progress fell short of expectations, risks in overseas business operations, and increased market-based competition.