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Nexa Resources (NYSE:NEXA) Shareholders Are up 8.9% This Past Week, but Still in the Red Over the Last Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 1, 2023 08:16

Nexa Resources S.A. (NYSE:NEXA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 20% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 55% in that half decade.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$65m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Nexa Resources

Nexa Resources isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over five years, Nexa Resources grew its revenue at 5.3% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 9% per year, in that time. We want to see an acceleration of revenue growth (or profits) before showing much interest in this one. However, it's possible too many in the market will ignore it, and there may be an opportunity if it starts to recover down the track.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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NYSE:NEXA Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2023

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Nexa Resources in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Nexa Resources the TSR over the last 5 years was -45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Nexa Resources has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 29% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 8% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nexa Resources you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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