In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Brinker International, Inc. (NYSE:EAT) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 31% over a half decade. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 7.9% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
While the last five years has been tough for Brinker International shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
See our latest analysis for Brinker International
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Brinker International's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.4% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 7% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Brinker International has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Brinker International's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Brinker International shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 27%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Brinker International shareholders gained a total return of 4.5% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 5% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Brinker International better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Brinker International , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.