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Upwork (NASDAQ:UPWK Investor Three-year Losses Grow to 47% as the Stock Sheds US$93m This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 1, 2023 06:59

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ:UPWK) shareholders, since the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 21%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 25% in a year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 8.0% in a month.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Upwork isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Upwork

Given that Upwork didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years, Upwork saw its revenue grow by 23% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. While its revenue increased, the share price dropped at a rate of 14% per year. That seems like an unlucky result for holders. It's possible that the prior share price assumed unrealistically high future growth. Still, with high hopes now tempered, now might prove to be an opportunity to buy.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:UPWK Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2023

Upwork is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Upwork shareholders are down 25% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Upwork you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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