The Zhitong Finance app learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that there is a high probability that the market will rebound more than a month. At the same time, as the disclosure of the three-quarter report nears its end, the stock market is expected to enter a window period conducive to a rebound. However, the speed of rebound or reversal after stabilization depends to a certain extent on whether the stock market presents a grand narrative about the new economic cycle or the easing of core contradictions. The adjustment of growth track stocks may cause the bottom of the market to come later than expected, but the bank believes that from now on for the next six months, A-shares have three reversal forces: 1) policy bottom and excessive decline repair; 2) inventory cycle reversal; and 3) steady improvement in real estate sales.
Industry configuration suggestions:Allocate excessive falling sectors within a month, overallocate financial categories (securities banks) within half a year, and strategically allocate upstream cycles within 1-2 years. 1) The upstream cycle will continue to be overallocated over the next 1 year: Cyclical stocks have been affected by the decline in the global inventory cycle over the past year, and adjustments have occurred one after another, but as the decline in the inventory cycle comes to an end, there is a possibility that macro demand will pick up in 2023-Q4-2024. The bank believes that in view of insufficient long-term production capacity construction, demand, supply, and valuation may resonate. 2) China Special Assessment's internal focus on finance: Starting in 2022, the overall market style gradually shifts to value. The China Special Assessment sector has experienced systematic valuation repairs due to long-term undervaluation. With the stabilization of policies and economic expectations, the focus on finance in the future has been focused on the financial category in China Special Assessment. 3) TMT: The adjustments are quite adequate, but subsequent new increases require performance. 4) Consumer chain and real estate chain: Although there have been many twists and turns in the economic recovery this year, the bank believes there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Focus on observing when real estate sales show signs of recovery. The consumer chain and real estate chain allocation opportunities may be in Q1 next year.
In November, Cinda Securities's “Top Ten Gold Stocks” portfolio was:Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering (), Sailun Tire (), Wanchen Group (300972.SZ), Bingshan Hot and Cold (000530.SZ), Bojun Technology (300926.SZ), Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ), Wanfu Biotech (300482.SZ), Ningde Era (300750.SZ). 600583.SH 601058.SH
Risk Factors:The decline in real estate exceeded expectations, the market fluctuated sharply, and the black swan incident in individual stocks.