Zhitong financial APP learned, Dongwu Securities released research report said, According to IDC data, Global PC shipments in 23Q2 month-on-month rebound 8%, Year-on-year decline narrowed to 14%, 23Q3 month-on-month rebound 11%, Year-on-year decline further narrowed to 8%. The bank believes that as inventory demineralization nears the end, PC prices have also stopped falling and stabilized, and the inflection point of the PC industry has initially appeared, and recovery is in sight. In addition, the deployment of AIGC application not only improves user experience and promotes the growth of replacement demand, but also puts forward higher requirements for PC hardware. The penetration rate of hardware acceleration module in PC is expected to increase PC unit price, and the accelerated PC industry with superimposed replacement cycle is expected to usher in a rise in volume and price.
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:
Inventory demineralization effect appears, 23Q2-Q3PC shipments are month-on-month rebound, year-on-year decline continues to narrow, prices also tend to stabilize:According to IDC data, global PC shipments fell sharply by 9% month-on-month and 15% month-on-month from 22Q4 and 23Q1 respectively, and then rose by 8% month-on-month in 23Q2, narrowing year-on-year decline to 14%, and rising by 11% month-on-month in 23Q3, further narrowing year-on-year decline to 8%; The inventory de-effect of major terminal manufacturers has already appeared. In 23Q2, the total inventory of Lenovo, Dell, ASUS, HP and Acer decreased by 3.4% month-on-month and 16.9% year-on-year. As inventory demineralization draws to a close, PC prices have also stopped falling and stabilized, and the inflection point of the PC industry has initially appeared, and recovery is in sight.
AIPC and Windows 10 system shutdown accelerated replacement cycle, AIGC application support PC is expected to rise in volume and price:Lenovo demonstrated the first AIPC in October 2023, which is expected to achieve local large-scale model deployment by integrating acceleration units in hardware, while Windows 10 will be discontinued in 24 years, combining the two to accelerate the replacement cycle. The deployment of AIGC application not only improves user experience and promotes the growth of replacement demand, but also puts forward higher requirements for PC hardware. The penetration rate of hardware acceleration module in PC is expected to increase PC unit price, and the accelerated PC industry with superimposed replacement cycle is expected to usher in a rise in volume and price.
Huawei's PC share has increased rapidly, and it is expected to further increase shipments by virtue of AI technology advantages and Hongmeng system in the future:According to Canalys data, Huawei shipped 870,000 units in the mainland of China in 23Q2, up 6% year-on-year, market share reached 9%, up 2pct year-on-year, ranking second only to Lenovo and HP. In the consumer market, Huawei is expected to continue to expand by virtue of AI technology advantages, and in the Xinchuang market, Huawei is expected to gain a larger market share by virtue of Hongmeng system and localization advantages.
The PC industry chain consists of three parts: upstream components, midstream assembly and downstream brand manufacturers:The core of the upstream component is the CPU and precision structural parts represented by connectors. Midstream assembly is dominated by ODM, with high concentration. The shipments of Quanta, Renbao, Weichuang and Nvidia are close to 50% of the global PC shipments. Competition among downstream brand manufacturers intensified, Lenovo ranked first in share, and Huawei's share increased rapidly.
Investment advice:Suggest to pay attention to the upstream display panel company Weishi Electronics (605218.SH), Huichuangda (300909.SZ), Longteng Optoelectronics (688055.SH); Recommended upstream structural parts company Chunqiu Electronics (603890.SH), it is suggested to pay attention to the upstream structural parts companies Shengli Precision (002426.SZ), Yingli Shares (300956.SZ) and Xinyin Electronics (301329.SZ); it is suggested to pay attention to other upstream component companies Longyang Electronics (301389.SZ), Everbright Tongchuang (301387.SZ) and Wanxiang Technology (301180.SZ).
Risk Tips:Downstream recovery less than expected risk;AIPC user experience less than expected risk.