It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600258) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 26%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 4.6%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 5.0% in the last three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 19% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 11% in the same timeframe.
The recent uptick of 3.9% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
View our latest analysis for BTG Hotels (Group)
We don't think that BTG Hotels (Group)'s modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.
In the last year BTG Hotels (Group) saw its revenue grow by 19%. We think that is pretty nice growth. Unfortunately that wasn't good enough to stop the share price dropping 26%. You might even wonder if the share price was previously over-hyped. However, that's in the past now, and it's the future that matters most.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
BTG Hotels (Group) is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 4.6% in the twelve months, BTG Hotels (Group) shareholders did even worse, losing 26%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.