Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that herpes zoster vaccine is another important adult vaccine after HPV vaccine, in which Shingrix, a recombinant herpes zoster vaccine developed by GSK, was listed on 2017Q4 and quickly replaced the previous generation product Zostavax of Merck by virtue of its higher protective effectiveness. sales exceeded 1 billion US dollars (784 million pounds) in the first full sales year after listing. Revenue of 2.958 billion pounds (+ 72% year on year) in 2022 is expected to exceed 4 billion pounds in 2026.Excellent commercial performance.Recommended attention: Zhifei (300122.SZ), Baike (688276.SH), etc.
The main points of ▍ Guoxin Securities are as follows:
The incidence of herpes zoster is increasing year by year, and the disease burden is heavy.
Herpes zoster is caused by reactivation of VZV. Its first infection usually occurs in early childhood, with varicella as the main clinical manifestation. After infection, the virus lurks in ganglion neurons, showing an occult infection. When the body immunity decreases, the virus is reactivated and replicated in large quantities, causing erythema, clustered blisters and neuralgia as the main characteristics of herpes zoster. The incidence of herpes zoster in the global general population is 3 / 5 / 10 / 1000 person-years, and that in the Asia-Pacific region is 3 / 10 / 1000 / 1000 person-years, with an annual increase of 2.5% / 5.0%.
Advanced age is one of the main risk factors for VZV reactivation. The global incidence of herpes zoster in the general population over 50 years old is 5 to 11 thousand person-years. In addition to acute skin lesions and pain, about 9% to 34% of patients have a potential risk of developing PHN, and the site of pain is larger than that of the rash area. 30% to 50% of the patients have pain for more than 1 year, and some of the disease can last for more than 10 years.
Herpes zoster vaccine is one of the most important varieties in the world, and Shingrix is released rapidly after it is put on the market.
Herpes zoster vaccine is another important adult vaccine after HPV vaccine. Shingrix, a recombinant herpes zoster vaccine developed by GSK, was listed in 2017Q4, which quickly replaced Zostavax, the previous generation product of Merck, with its higher protective effectiveness. it exceeded $1 billion (784 million pounds) in sales in the first full sales year after listing, achieved revenue of 2.958 billion pounds (year-on-year + 72 percent) in 2022, and is expected to exceed 4 billion pounds in 2026. Excellent commercial performance.
The domestic competition pattern is good and the space for commercialization is broad.
At present, only GSK's recombinant herpes zoster vaccine Shingrix (2019) and Baig biological live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine Ganwei (2023) are on the market in China, which are in the early stage of commercialization. it is estimated that the penetration rate of the domestic age-appropriate population is only about 0.3%.
In terms of research and development pipeline, green bamboo recombinant herpes zoster vaccine LZ901 has launched Ph3 clinic in 2023Q3. It is expected that 2024H2 will complete Ph3 clinic and declare BLA, which will be commercialized in China as soon as 2025Q4. McKang and Shanghai Yidao Recombinant Herpes Zoster vaccine pipeline are in phase Ph2 and Ph1/2 respectively, and Ph3 clinical trial is expected to start in 2024.
Others are still in the early clinical stage, and the short-term competition pattern in the domestic market is good. Assuming that the cumulative penetration rate of people aged 50 and over in China reaches 15% by 2032, it is estimated that the size of the domestic herpes zoster vaccine market is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan.
Investment advice:
Zhifei has reached an exclusive agency agreement with GSK, and the advantages of "product + market" complement each other; Baike's first domestic live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine has been approved to market, with differentiated advantages in terms of vaccination times, safety, approved age and price, etc.; LZ901 Ph1 clinical and Shingrix clinical data are excellent, and Ph3 clinical has been launched, which is expected to be commercialized in China as soon as 2025Q4.
Risk Tips:
There are some risks, such as the sales of products are lower than expected, the market competition is intensified, the research and development of products under development fails or falls short of expectations, and the negative impact of vaccine safety events on the industry.