港股概念追踪 | 马来西亚计划禁止稀土出口 国内稀土价格有望开启反弹(附概念股)

Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Malaysia plans to ban rare earth exports, domestic rare earth prices are expected to start a rebound (with concept stocks)

Zhitong Finance ·  10/24/2023 17:10

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the afternoon of October 24, changes in the rare earth sector rose, and the rare earth ETF fund (516150) rose 2% in a straight line. According to the news, market sources say Malaysia plans to ban the export of rare earths. Processed mineral products can be exported; the ban only targets raw materials. The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that after experiencing a sharp correction, rare earth prices have basically remained stable and fluctuated in a low range since May of this year. The growth rate of domestic rare earth ore supply has slowed down. The Myanmar side is affected by the decline in quality, and the increase is limited due to the decline in quality, so it is unlikely that rare earth prices will continue to drop sharply.With the support of domestic economic recovery and a gradual recovery in demand for rare earths, rare earth prices are expected to begin to rebound.

According to a report by Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network on October 20, according to some market sources, Australia's Lynas Rare Earth Company said on October 20 that it plans to close all Malaysian businesses except the mixed rare earth carbonate processing plant in the December quarter. Lynas said that during the shutdown period that began in mid-November, key personnel from the Malaysian cracking and leaching department will be dispatched to the rare earth processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia to assist in starting the process.

The company will upgrade its downstream operations in Lynas, Malaysia to increase production of neodymium praseodymium to around 10,500 tons per year. If the company's Malaysian operating license is renewed to allow continued importation and processing of lanthanide concentrates, then this upgrade will be essential.However, Malaysia's operating license has one condition, which prohibits the miner from importing and processing rare earth raw materials from January 2024.

On the domestic side, due to positive downstream demand, rare earth prices have clearly risen since September. Entering October, rare earth prices continued to rise.

According to data from the China Rare Earth Industry Association, in September, the rare earth price index showed a slow upward trend in the first half of the month and a basically steady trend in the second half of the month. The average price index for September was 227.1 points. The highest price index was 229.9 points on September 12, and the lowest was 217.5 points on September 1. The difference between the high and low points was 12.4 points, and the fluctuation range was 5.5%. Among them, in September, the average price of oxidized cuoqin was 522,800 yuan/ton, up 8.0% from the previous month; the average sales price of oxidation was 2,613,800 yuan/ton, up 10.0% from the previous month; 99.99%, the average oxidation price was 8,518 million yuan/ton, up 13.9% from the previous month. Major rare earth products are showing an upward trend.

In terms of exports, on October 13, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's rare earth exports in September fell 17.6% compared to the previous month. Yang Jiawen, an analyst at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), believes that the month-on-month decline in rare earth exports in September was not surprising. On the one hand, domestic demand for rare earths improved in August, driven by a wave of rare earth inventory replenishment. On the other hand, it was driven by purchases before the week-long holiday in October and concerns about reduced supply to Myanmar.

Looking at imports, with regard to the 19% year-on-year increase in rare earth imports in August, Yang Jiawen said that because continuously tightening mine environmental regulations limited the increase in domestic supply, China's rare earth mining quota this year increased by a small percentage compared to the previous year, which also limited supply growth. The volume of rare earth imports from January to September increased by 49.2% year-on-year to 134,334 tons.

Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued on September 25 in the “Notice on Issuing Total Control Indicators for the Second Batch of Rare Earth Mining, Smelting and Separation in 2023” showed that the total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023 were 120,000 tons and 115,000 tons, respectively. Yang Jiawen said in this regard that although the total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023 still increased by a certain margin over the same period last year,However, considering the high volume of rare earth imports this year, the growth rate of domestic mining indicators has clearly slowed down.At the same time, the mining indicators for the second batch of ion ore have increased year-on-year. Currently, ionic ore owners in the market are clearly hesitating to sell their goods. When some miners ship, many people are willing to buy, and they don't even need to reduce processing fees.

On the evening of October 8, Baogang Co., Ltd. and North Rare Earth both announced that they intend to adjust the rare earth concentrate related transaction prices for the fourth quarter of 2023 to 20,536 yuan/ton without tax (dry volume, REO = 50%, same below). The price showed a slight increase compared to Q3, and this is the first time since this year that the two sides have raised the transaction price. Analysts pointed out that Baogang Co., Ltd. raised the transaction price of Q4 rare earth concentrate mainly because of the recent rise in the price of praseodymium oxide.

Baogang Co., Ltd. and Northern Rare Earth's move to raise the price of rare earthsTrigger bullish sentiment in the marketSome industry insiders said that the current demand side is gradually improving, and it is expected that rare earth prices will mainly fluctuate and rise in the short term.

Related concept stocks:

China Rare Earth (00769): According to official WeChat information from China Rare Earth Group, on October 20, China Rare Earth Group and the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Ganzhou. According to reports, in the next step, the two sides will focus on building a rare earth innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain, and talent chain, and comprehensively deepening practical cooperation in various fields.

Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680): Jinli Permanent Magnet announced on the evening of October 11 that in order to implement the company's development strategy, the company plans to use H shares to raise capital to invest 150 million yuan in Jinli Ningbo, a wholly-owned subsidiary, and participate in the investment to establish the Ningbo Antec Jinli Equity Investment Partnership (limited partnership) (tentative name) through Jinli Ningbo Investment.

Minmetals Resources (01208): The company is a core basic metal mining enterprise under China Minmetals Group. It specializes in copper-zinc ore mining and owns two world-class mining assets, the Las Bambas copper mine and the Dugald River zinc mine.

China Aluminum (02600): The company is a leading enterprise in China's aluminum industry. It is also a large-scale aluminum production and management enterprise integrating exploration and mining of resources such as bauxite, coal, etc., production, sales, technology research and development of alumina, raw aluminum, aluminum alloys and carbon products, thermal power and new energy generation.

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