The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that in September, the sales area of commercial housing in the country fell 10.1% year-on-year in a month. The decline has narrowed for three consecutive months, and the decline in funds available to housing enterprises has also narrowed somewhat. Since September, major Tier 1 and 2 cities have continued to optimize their core real estate regulation policies, including the implementation of “no loan approval for housing approval” in early September, and major Tier 2 cities have continued to optimize core regulation policies such as purchase restrictions and sales restrictions. The effects of the policy are slightly evident. High-frequency data since October shows that the decline in sales has narrowed further. Continued optimization of policies is expected to further improve sales and financing for housing enterprises, and the relatively sluggish investment situation is also expected to improve.
Incidents:The Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the real estate market. In September 2023, the sales area, investment amount, new construction area, and completed area were 108.57 million square meters, 1036.9 billion yuan, 82.32 million square meters, and 49.79 million square meters respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were -10.1%, -11.3%, -14.6%, and 25.3%, respectively. The previous values were -12.2%, -11.0%, -23.6%, and 10.6%, respectively.
The main views of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:
The decline in sales has narrowed, and the effects of the policy have been slightly evident.
In September 2023, the national commercial housing sales area fell 10.1% year on year, and the decline narrowed for three consecutive months. Since September, major Tier 1 and 2 cities have continued to optimize their core real estate regulation policies, including the implementation of “no loan approval for housing approval” in early September, and major Tier 2 cities have continued to optimize core regulation policies such as purchase restrictions and sales restrictions. The effects of the policy are slightly evident. Since October, the commercial housing transaction area of the top 30 medium-sized cities has dropped 8.0% year-on-year, and the decline is 7.2 percentage points narrower than the same period last month. As the effects of policy optimization continue to be unleashed, real estate sales are expected to improve further.
The financing of housing enterprises has improved, and investment is still sluggish.
In September, funds available to housing enterprises fell 18.0% year on year, and the decline narrowed somewhat. Judging from various sources of funding, bank-side financing improved markedly, and there is still pressure on sales repayment. In September, investment in real estate development fell 11.3% year on year, new construction area fell 15.2% year on year. The decline in investment increased. The increase in investment enthusiasm among housing enterprises to start construction needed to wait for sales to pick up significantly. The area completed in September increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and continues to be supported by Baojiao Building's work.
Continued policy optimization is expected to further improve the industry, and recommend housing enterprises and transactional companies focusing on high-energy cities.
The decline in real estate sales continued to narrow in July-September. Against the backdrop of first-tier and second-tier cities relaxing core regulation policies one after another, the positive sales trend is expected to continue. Housing enterprises focusing on high-energy cities will take the lead in benefiting from it, and the transformation of urban villages in megacities will also bring new opportunities to the industry.