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The Five-year Loss for ProAssurance (NYSE:PRA) Shareholders Likely Driven by Its Shrinking Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 18, 2023 07:02

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the ProAssurance Corporation (NYSE:PRA) share price has gained 15% in the last three months. But that is little comfort to those holding over the last half decade, sitting on a big loss. Indeed, the share price is down 56% in the period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$62m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for ProAssurance

Given that ProAssurance only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.

In the last half decade, ProAssurance saw its revenue increase by 5.5% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 9% per year, in that time. We'd want to see proof that future revenue growth is likely to be significantly stronger before getting too interested in ProAssurance. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:PRA Earnings and Revenue Growth October 18th 2023

We know that ProAssurance has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at ProAssurance's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between ProAssurance's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that ProAssurance's TSR, which was a 51% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in ProAssurance had a tough year, with a total loss of 9.2%, against a market gain of about 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 9% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with ProAssurance , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like ProAssurance better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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