国金证券:光伏行业订单向头部集中 供给端改善望支撑行情筑底

Guojin Securities: Orders in the PV industry are concentrated at the top, supply-side improvements are expected to support the bottom of the market

Zhitong Finance ·  10/17/2023 21:27

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the photovoltaic industry has recently shown an increasingly obvious supply-side improvement trend. Considering that the market's concerns about this round of “serious overcapacity” are one of the core reasons for the sector's decline over the past year, signals of continued marginal improvement on the supply side will effectively support the warming of sector sentiment and the recovery of market conditions. Industry beta storage repair space. In a context where sentiment continues to be sluggish, it is recommended to focus on arranging links, companies, and main lines where α is prominent: 1) Integrated module leaders that underestimate both medium- to short-term profit maintenance ability and medium- to long-term competitive landscape stability; 2) Strong energy storage that is resistant to fluctuations in the main photovoltaic industry chain and catalyzes expectations with storage policies in the second half of the year; 3) Strong cyclic chain leaders with the ability to traverse cycles due to α-prominent business or product line layouts; 4) New technology in the direction of electroplating copper (HJT) & perovskite equipment with clear direction and continuous catalysis /Material leader; 5) Profit bottomed out and increased with production schedule There is an auxiliary materials/consumables section where profit is flexible and the leading advantage is outstanding.

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Industrial chain:The supply of silicon materials has released price loosening, middle and downstream profits are under pressure, and component orders are concentrated at the top.1) Prices: High silicon prices stabilized in September, and there were signs of loosening after the holidays; prices of silicon wafers and batteries fell rapidly; component prices bottomed out and orders were concentrated at the top; benefiting from increased module production schedules, prices of photovoltaic glass and film rebounded in September, and prices of PV EVA resin and film began to be under pressure in late September. Furthermore, the price difference for N-type silicon remains high, and with the accelerated release of N-type battery production capacity in the second half of the year, the “tight focus” and excess profit in the “n-type TopCon” supply chain may shift to the upstream high-quality silicon material end. 2) Profit: Measure that midstream and downstream profits are under pressure. 3) Production schedule: In October, the incremental supply of silicon materials continued to be released. The lead maintained high production output, superimposed N and BC components, and increased production in the industrial chain other than silicon wafers. The output of silicon/silicon/battery/module is expected to be 60/61/58/53GW, +9.0%/-2.6%/+6.3%/+2.7% over the previous month.

Requirements:Domestic installed capacity has gradually weakened, maintained high growth throughout the year, and exports have resumed growth.1) Domestic installed capacity: In August, domestic installed capacity was added 16.0 GW, an increase of 137%, a decrease of 15%. There was no significant increase in supply in the industrial chain in August. Considering the 11% month-on-month increase in battery module exports, the domestic installed capacity was slightly lower in line with expectations. In January-August, 113.2GW of PV installed capacity was added in China, an increase of 155%. With the accelerated release of silicon supply, midstream and downstream production schedules are expected to continue to increase month-on-month in Q4. It is estimated that the bank's annual strategic forecast of “adding 150 GWac of domestic installed capacity for the whole year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 70%” predicted by the bank last year is likely to be exceeded. 2) Exports: Battery module exports totaled 154.6 GW in January-August, +20.2% year on year. Among them, domestic battery module exports in August were 18.6 GW, +16% year on year and +11% month on month. Against the backdrop of continuous decline in component prices and Europe entering summer vacation, the increase in export data for August exceeded expectations. Looking at regional distribution, Central Asian countries saw impressive growth in August, and European exports recovered sequentially. The bank has emphasized many times before that since the decline in overseas component prices in this round lags behind domestic ones, it is expected that the effect of the reduction in component prices on overseas terminal demand will continue to be felt.

Collected data tracking:The number of tenders in September increased significantly from month to month.According to incomplete statistics, from the beginning of 2023 to October 13, the bidding/opening/bid volume for large-scale components collected by central state-owned enterprises was 195/144/142 GW, respectively, an increase of 88%/50%/50%/50% over the previous year from January to October last year. The bidding/opening/bid volume in September was 22/11/15GW respectively, up 23%/2114%/136% year on year. The number of tenders in September increased significantly from August. Procurement for ground power plant projects began to advance after the decline in component prices slowed down. Among the projects where the fixed price was announced in September, the fixed price for the P type was 1.17-1.22 yuan/W, and the fixed price for the N type was 1.22-1.31 yuan/W. The scale of the low price project was relatively small.

Q3 performance outlook: Shipments continue to grow, and downstream profits are under pressure.Based on industry chain demand, production schedules and price conditions, the bank expects the overall shipment volume of the Q3 industry to increase month-on-month. It is estimated that shipments from leading companies will increase by 20%, and that shipments from companies with leading TopCon layouts will increase even more significantly. On the profit side, with the exception of silicon wafers, the profits of major industrial chain units are under pressure month-on-month. Judging from published performance forecasts, the profit of leading integrated enterprise units is expected to drop by about 2-4 points/W month-on-month (estimated according to the median performance forecast of leading companies, does not represent company guidelines). Benefiting from the increase in Q3 component production schedules, demand for auxiliary materials is improving, shipments of most auxiliary materials have increased significantly month-on-month, and profits have improved month-on-month. Q4 is the peak season for centralized domestic installations. The bank expects industry shipments to continue to grow month-on-month. It is expected that profits in the middle and downstream sectors will still be in a declining channel, and that companies with an advantageous production capacity layout such as TopCon/BC have a leading production capacity layout and leading production capacity and channel layout in high-profit overseas markets are more certain about profit certainty.

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