Zhitong Financial APP learned that on October 16, the State Council issued the "opinions on promoting the High-quality Development of Inner Mongolia and striving to write a New Chapter of Chinese-style Modernization", which proposes to enhance the guarantee capacity of strategic mineral resources such as rare earth, iron, nickel, copper, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, gold, fluorite, crystalline graphite, lithium, uranium and helium. In addition, due to the positive influence of downstream demand, rare earth prices have risen significantly since September. In October, the price of rare earths continued to rise. Guojin Securities said that the current demand side is gradually improving, rare earth prices are expected to rise mainly in the short term. Related concept stocks: China rare Earth (00769), Jinli permanent Magnet (06680), Minmetals Resources (01208), Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600).
It is reported that the "opinion" proposes to strengthen the development and utilization of rare earths and other strategic resources. Speed up the development of high-purity rare earth metals, high-performance rare earth permanent magnets, high-performance polishing and other high-end rare earth functional materials. Expand the application of rare earth catalytic materials in iron and steel, cement, glass, automobile, thermal power and other industries. We will support the Baotou rare Earth products Exchange to build a nationwide rare earth products trading center in accordance with the law, and build Baotou into the country's largest base for new rare earth materials and the world's leading rare earth application base.
Prior to this, the Ministry of Information and Natural Resources issued the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation total control targets in 2023, the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation total control targets were 120000 tons and 115000 tons respectively in 2023, and the total rare earth mining and smelting separation total control targets for the first two batches of 2023 were 240000 tons and 230000 tons respectively. There will be reserved indicators in 2023, and the number of indicators for the whole year will be finally determined taking into account the changes in market demand and the implementation of the indicators of various rare earth groups.
Shengang Securities believes that the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation indicators have maintained the supply level of heavy rare earths throughout the year, and the growth rate of light rare earth supply has slowed down, which is expected to provide support for rare earth prices. at the same time, more flexible supply regulation is expected to maintain price stability. it is beneficial to the downstream processing and utilization end, and under the expectation of demand recovery, processing enterprises in fields such as rare earth downstream magnets are expected to usher in a performance repair period.
According to the pricing method of rare earth concentrate and the price of rare earth oxide in the third quarter of 2023, according to the market news, according to the pricing method of rare earth concentrate and the price of rare earth oxide in the third quarter of 2023, the trading price of rare earth concentrate was adjusted to 20536 yuan / ton without tax in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the price of rare earth concentrate increased or decreased by 410.72 yuan / ton for every 1% increase or decrease in REO. The company will re-sign the rare earth concentrate supply contract with Baotou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., and carry out related transactions of rare earth concentrate in accordance with the newly signed contract.
Industry insiders believe that the increase in the listing price of rare earths in the north has a strong support for market sentiment, the market atmosphere of praseodymium and neodymium is good, the transaction of inquiry order is positive, and the price rises steadily; the price of terbium is firm, the market demand is rigid, and the merchant does not ship much, the spot at low price is difficult to find, the high price is cautious, the market wait and see, and the big factories still have the intention to receive goods, and there is still room for bullish in the future, and it is expected that the price of rare earths will rise steadily in the near future.
In addition, as China's largest supplier of rare earth products, Northern rare earths also mentioned at an investor relations event in August that the prices of rare earth products are mainly affected by market supply and demand, as downstream demand increases. Rare earth product prices are expected to rise slightly. Northern rare earths believe that from the point of view of the growth of market demand in the second half of the year, there is a relatively high demand for new energy vehicles, permanent magnet industrial motors and clean energy.
According to the China rare Earth Industry Association, in September, the rare earth price index showed a slow upward trend in the first half of the month and basically stable in the second half of the month. The average price index in September was 227.1 points. The price index peaked at 229.9 on Sept. 12 and the lowest at 217.5 on Sept. 1. The difference between high and low points is 12.4 points, with a fluctuation range of 5.5%. Among them, in September, the average price of oxidation was 522800 yuan / ton, up 8.0% from the previous month; the average price of oxidation sales was 2.6138 million yuan / ton, up 10.0% from the previous month; 99.99% of the oxidation price was 8.518 million yuan / ton, up 13.9% from the previous month. Major rare earth products are showing an upward trend.
Looking forward to the future, Baichuan Yingfu Research report believes that on the supply side, from the raw material side, due to the expected increase in indicators in the second half of the year, the supply is expected to increase. However, due to the tight quantity of waste, high prices, underemployment, and the recent instability of imported Burmese mines, the reduction in quantity has led to a small increase in the market; in addition, the spot market inventory is relatively concentrated and the circulation of bulk goods is relatively small. as a result, the increase in supply is not obvious, and supply and demand are slightly tight.
On the demand side, recent orders from large NdFeB factories have been added one after another, construction has increased, and demand has improved. However, because most enterprises are supported by long-term association orders, the quantity of spot purchases is general, and the intention to reduce the price is obvious, at the same time, the price advantage is strong, and most of them are mainly sold. In addition, metal praseodymium and neodymium spot inventory is not much, manufacturers are not willing to ship at a low price, there is a price mentality, the overall support of the market is OK.
Related concept stocks:
China rare Earth (00769): the company is a Hong Kong investment holding company mainly engaged in the manufacture and sales of rare earth and refractory products, including metal oxides and fluorescent products. The company's rare earth products are used in a variety of industrial products such as modern high-tech and traditional products, such as electronic equipment, computers, motor-driven motors, liquid crystal displays, digital audio-visual discs, permanent magnet materials, magnetic memory, optical fiber communications, superconductors, mobile phone batteries, precision optical instruments and environmental protection and energy-saving products.
Jinli permanent Magnet (06680): the company is a high-tech enterprise integrating R & D, production and sales of high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials, and is a leading supplier of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials in the field of new energy and energy saving and environmental protection. According to Haitong International, the global market share of products in the field of rare earth materials for new energy vehicles is about 28% in 2022, and the global market share of Jinli permanent magnet in the field of new energy vehicles is expected to further increase in 2023.
Minmetals Resources (01208): the company is the core basic metal mining enterprise under China Minmetals Group, which is mainly engaged in copper-zinc mining and owns two world-class mine assets, Las Bambas Copper Mine and Dugald River Zinc Mine.
Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600): the company is not only a leading enterprise in China's aluminum industry, but also a large-scale aluminum production and operation enterprise integrating bauxite, coal and other resources, production, sales, technology research and development of alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum alloy and carbon products, firepower and new energy power generation. The company had previously said at the results meeting that as of the end of June 2023, it had a 23.94% stake in China rare rare Earth Co., Ltd. (referred to as "China rare rare Earth").