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Those Who Invested in Celanese (NYSE:CE) a Year Ago Are up 33%

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 13, 2023 08:38

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) share price is 30% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 16% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 1.1% in the last three years.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

See our latest analysis for Celanese

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last twelve months, Celanese actually shrank its EPS by 36%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

However the year on year revenue growth of 7.7% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NYSE:CE Earnings and Revenue Growth October 13th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Celanese in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Celanese the TSR over the last 1 year was 33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Celanese has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 33% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Celanese (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

Celanese is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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