Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report that Zhifei (300122.SZ) joined forces with GSK, which is expected to accelerate the release of domestic herpes zoster vaccine. Recently, Zhifei Biological announcement Company won the exclusive agency of GSK recombinant herpes zoster vaccine in China, the bank believes that this cooperation once again reflects the strong sales platform value of Zhifei biology, while the rapid release of varieties such as HPV vaccine in the front, the bank is optimistic about the future rapid sales of GSK recombinant herpes zoster vaccine in the domestic market, further driving the overall improvement of domestic herpes zoster vaccination penetration.
The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:
Herpes zoster seriously affects the health of patients, and vaccine prevention can effectively deal with it:
Herpes zoster (herpeszoster) is an infectious skin disease caused by reactivation of varicella-zoster virus (varicella-zostervirus,VZV) latent in the dorsal root ganglion or cranial ganglion of the spinal cord for a long time. Usually manifested as a rash, chest, abdomen or face painful blisters, in addition to skin damage is often accompanied by neuropathic pain, may last for weeks or months, some patients with pain or even several years, more common in older people, immunosuppression or immunodeficiency and other people, seriously affect the quality of life of patients. The consensus of Chinese experts on diagnosis and treatment of herpes zoster (2022 version) mentioned that vaccination against herpes zoster is an effective measure to prevent herpes zoster, which can inhibit VZV reactivation and prevent herpes zoster, PHN and other complications. In recent years, the global sales of herpes zoster vaccine have increased rapidly, and it has become a best-selling single product in the world.
Global rapid release of herpes zoster vaccine, Shingrix annual sales of 3 billion pounds:
At present, there are two main herpes zoster vaccines on the market in the world (Merck & Co Inc's live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine Zostavax and GSK's herpes zoster recombinant subunit vaccine Shingrix). Among them, Shingrix was approved by FDA in 2017 and achieved rapid release (for people aged 50 and above to prevent herpes zoster), with global sales of 1.721 billion pounds in 2021 and 2.958 billion pounds in 2022, respectively. The bank believes that it is no accident that herpes zoster vaccine has become the best-selling single item in the world. on the one hand, the global incidence of herpes zoster (3-5) / 1000 person-years provides a large group of at-risk patients. the global annual incremental market for herpes zoster vaccine is expected to reach 100 billion yuan. On the other hand, the herpes zoster vaccine has excellent protective efficacy, with GSK's Shingrix as an example. Previous phase III clinical data showed that it had a protective effect of 97% against herpes zoster in adults aged 50 and over, and post-marketing phase IV clinical trial data released in August showed that it was 100% effective for adults aged 50 and over Chinese mainland.
The domestic market penetration rate of herpes zoster vaccine is low, and there is huge room for growth of large single products:
At present, the overall level of penetration of the domestic market for herpes zoster vaccine is relatively low. GSK China has disclosed that the number of people aged 50 and over in China is expected to reach 570 million in 2030, but only about 1.2% of this population has been vaccinated against herpes zoster by June 2023, and there is still great room for improvement in the future. The bank estimates that the herpes zoster vaccine is expected to become a single product with annual sales of tens of billions of dollars. At present, two herpes zoster vaccines have been approved for sale in China (GSK's recombinant herpes subunit vaccine Shingrix and Baike's live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine, which were officially listed in China in June 2020 and February 2023, respectively). In addition, many other products under development are in the stage of clinical research or clinical application. in addition, herpes zoster vaccine has the possibility of aging in the future. It is expected to continue to promote the domestic herpes zoster vaccination penetration rate, approved varieties are expected to achieve rapid sales growth, recommended to pay attention to Zhifei biology, Baig biology.
Risk Tips:The negative policy of medicine is higher than expected, the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, and the risk of deviation in sales forecast.