The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the Fed's interest rate hike will come to an end. According to CME's FedWatch tool, as of October 7, the market expects the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in November/December is 72.9%/57.6%, respectively.As liquidity expectations improve, it will benefit precious metals prices.Furthermore, the central bank's gold purchase momentum is still strong, and demand for gold purchases provides strong support for the price of gold. Recommended targets: Zijin Mining (601899.SH), etc.; Beneficial targets: Shandong Gold (600547.SH), etc.
▍ Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
Cyclic research and judgment:
The US non-farm payrolls population in September was 336,000, exceeding market expectations and previous values. The job market is still resilient. However, the number of people employed in ADP in September was 89,000, below expectations and previous values, and the unemployment rate in September was 3.8%, slightly higher than expected. There are signs of loosening in the labor market, and core inflation may continue to decline. At the same time, in an environment of high interest rates, the US economy may face the risk of recession. The annual rate of retail sales in the US for the week ending September 30 fell to 3.5%. The ISM manufacturing index for September was 49, and remained below the boom and bust line for November.
In this context, the Fed's interest rate hike will come to an end. According to CME's FedWatch tool, as of October 7, the market expects the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in November/December is 72.9%/57.6%, respectively. As liquidity expectations improve, it will benefit precious metals prices. Furthermore, the central bank's gold purchase momentum is still strong, and demand for gold purchases provides strong support for the price of gold.
Gold: Interest rate hikes have come to an end, liquidity expectations have improved, and the price of gold will rise.
Prices: SHFE gold, COMEX gold, and London gold now changed 0.00%, -1.02%, and -0.89% to 459.50 yuan/gram, 1847.00 US dollars/ounce, and 1832.19 US dollars/ounce this week. Inventory: SHFE gold inventory was the same as last week, and COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.06 tons to 645 tons compared to last week.
Positions: COMEX gold non-commercial net long holdings decreased by 24,600 units compared to last week, and SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 254,400 ounces from last week.
Central bank purchases: As of the end of September, China's central bank gold reserves were about 2191.55 tons, an increase of about 26.12 tons over the previous month. They have continued to increase for 11 months.
Silver: Guided by financial attributes, leveraged banks are more flexible.
Prices: SHFE silver, COMEX silver, and London silver have now changed by 0.00%, -3.05%, and -2.71% to 5775 yuan/kg, 21.77 US dollars/ounce, and 21.58 US dollars/ounce this week. Inventory: SHFE silver inventory was the same as last week, gold exchange silver inventory was the same as last week, and COMEX bank inventory increased by 100 tons to 8509 tons compared to last week.
Positions: COMEX silver non-commercial net long holdings decreased by 0.48,000 units compared to last week, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by about 9.244,400 ounces compared to last week.
Manufacturing boom: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.5% over the previous month. In the future, with a steady recovery in the economy and a high boom in the photovoltaic industry, it will drive industrial demand for silver.
Risk warning:
The Fed's interest rate hike and reduction schedule exceeded expectations, manufacturing recovery fell short of expectations, geopolitical impact, etc.