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Shareholders in Trupanion (NASDAQ:TRUP) Have Lost 70%, as Stock Drops 4.8% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 5, 2023 12:22

Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But long term Trupanion, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRUP) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Unfortunately, they have held through a 70% decline in the share price in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 53% in a year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 9.7% in a month. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 6.1% in the same time.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Trupanion isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Trupanion

Because Trupanion made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over three years, Trupanion grew revenue at 28% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is down 19% compound, over three years - disappointing by most standards. This could mean hype has come out of the stock because the losses are concerning investors. But a share price drop of that magnitude could well signal that the market is overly negative on the stock.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGM:TRUP Earnings and Revenue Growth October 5th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Trupanion will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Trupanion shareholders are down 53% for the year, but the market itself is up 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.5% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Trupanion that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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