The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened with an increase of 0.31%. The three major indices fluctuated throughout the day. Their gains narrowed somewhat in the afternoon, and finally closed slightly higher. By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.1% or 18.03 points to 17213.87 points, with a full-day turnover of HK$47.05 billion; the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index rose 0.09% to 5887.98 points; and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.14% to 3757.82 points.
Zheshang Securities pointed out that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in September was still poor, but the decline was clearly narrower than last month. US bond yields picked up at an accelerated pace after hawkish statements at the interest rate meeting, and capital is still under pressure. Looking forward to the future, given the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and the fundamentals of stability, the bank maintains a relatively optimistic view of medium- to long-term trends; however, with regard to short-term trends, the bank continues its previous cautious view. The short-term focus is on the pace of the Fed's subsequent interest rate hikes.
Blue chip stock performance
Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876) led Blue Chip. At the close, it rose 5.44% to HK$15.88, with a turnover of HK$138 million, contributing 2.62 points to the Hang Seng Index. According to the Jefferies Research Report, Budweiser Asia Pacific will announce third-quarter results on the 31st of this month. The adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 597 million US dollars, profit margin 31.2%, and sales increase 3% to 27.4 billion US dollars. The bank expects China's beer industry to continue to be consolidated, and the company is focusing on structural high-end products. Maintain its “buy” rating.
In terms of other blue-chip stocks, Wanzhou International (00288) rose 3.25% to HK$4.13, contributing 1.79 points to the Hang Seng Index; China Resources Beer (00291) rose 2.41% to HK$42.5, contributing 2.65 points to the Hang Seng Index; Innovation and Technology Industries (00669) fell 2.88% to HK$72.45, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 5.45 points; China Life Insurance (02628) fell 1.19% to HK$11.58, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 1.68 points.
In terms of popular sectors
On the market, large technology stocks had mixed ups and downs today; beer, pork concepts, paper stocks, auto stocks, game stocks, and Hong Kong retail stocks had the highest gains, while some biomedical stocks rose higher; on the other side, gold stocks, restaurants, and Apple concept stocks had the highest declines.
1. Beer stocks were strong throughout the day. By the close, Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876) rose 5.44% to HK$15.88; China Resources Beer (00291) rose 2.41% to HK$42.5; and Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. (00168) rose 1.11% to HK$63.75.
During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, Beijing, Qingdao and other places held events such as beer festivals, which stimulated related consumption. Guojin Securities pointed out that the first half of September was ahead of last year's Mid-Autumn Festival and staggered stocking times; although Tsing Beer was +4% in September of last year, it remained in stock in July-August, and the September replenishment was in line with previous company expectations. It is expected that there will be a good atmosphere during the two festivals this year. Minsheng Securities, on the other hand, said that in July-August of this year, leading liquor companies generally faced high base pressure, mainly due to the high temperature weather during the peak sales season last year. At the same time, the restaurant scene recovered after the inflection point of the epidemic, but the pressure on the leading sales base will drop significantly from September. The abolition of the double anti-policy of Australia and wheat is favorable to next year's costs; the bank recommended that Q4 focus on liquor companies' actions to normalize price increases during the off-season.
2. Most domestic housing stocks rose.By the close, Sunac China (01918) rose 6.31% to HK$2.19; Longguang Group (03380) rose 5.41% to HK$0.78; Midea Real Estate (03990) rose 3.5% to HK$6.21; and R&F Real Estate (02777) rose 3.42% to HK$1.21.
CBI pointed out that since September, property market optimization policies in various tier cities have been intensively introduced, including the approval of houses without loans, lowering interest rates on existing mortgages, and optimizing or abolishing purchase restriction policies. Entering the “Golden, Nine, and Silver Ten” traditional peak season, with the implementation of various property market easing policies one after another, the bank saw developers increase their promotion efforts in first-tier and core second-tier cities. Coupled with the policy's supporting role in improving the demand side, the bank saw sales stabilizing in first-tier and second-tier cities in September. It is expected that the first-tier city real estate market will take the lead in stabilizing and recovering, and sales will rise slightly in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, according to reports, after holding a hearing today, the Hong Kong court approved Sunac China's $10 billion overseas debt restructuring plan, making it the first major Chinese housing enterprise to remove the last key obstacle relating to debt restructuring. The restructuring plan was approved by a majority of creditors two weeks ago.
3. Auto stocks are picking up collectively. By the close, Zero Sports Auto (09863) rose 8.31% to HK$37.15; Xiaopeng Motor-W (09868) rose 4.79% to HK$70; Weilai-SW (09866) rose 2.79% to HK$68.15; and Ideal Motor-W (02015) rose 1.58% to HK$135.4.
Since October, a number of new energy vehicle companies have announced delivery and sales for September. BYD achieved another success, with sales volume exceeding 280,000 units in September, an increase of 42.8% over the previous year. The sales volume of GAC Aian exceeded the 50,000 mark. Ideal delivered more than 36,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 212%, setting a new monthly delivery high. New car builders such as Deep Blue, Zero Run, and NIO have all delivered over 10,000 vehicles. Galaxy Securities pointed out that the market's expectations for the “Gold, Nine, and Silver Ten” peak consumption season are good. According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Transport Association, passenger car sales in the narrow sense of September are expected to be 1.98 million units, +3.1% month-on-month and +3.0% year-on-year. Under the high base effect in the same period last year, retail sales continued to increase positively in September this year, reflecting the continued positive development trend of China's car market.
4. Some film and television stocks rebounded. By the close, Universal Entertainment (01046) rose 12.07% to HK$0.325; Litian Pictures (09958) rose 6.47% to HK$1.48; Alibaba Pictures (01060) rose 1.82% to HK$0.56; and IMAX China (01970) rose 0.92% to HK$8.73.
According to Lighthouse Pro, as of 13:43 on October 5, the total box office (including pre-sales) of new National Day movies in 2023 has exceeded 2.5 billion dollars. “Strong as a Rock”, “Former 4: Early Marriage in the British Age”, and “Volunteer Army: Attack of the Soldiers” temporarily ranked in the top three. CICC pointed out earlier that the National Day program has many leading films of various types, and the box office may have great flexibility in terms of growth. Referring to the average ticket price situation for key dates in 2023, National Day ticket prices may continue to grow; it is predicted that the box office for the National Day program including service fees in 2023 is expected to reach 43.8/486/5.40 billion yuan under conservative/neutral/optimistic conditions, respectively, compared to the 2019 National Day program growth rate of -2.0%/8.7%/20.8%, respectively. Everbright Securities believes that the National Day box office is expected to surpass the highest value of the 2019 edition of 4.46 billion yuan, and that the final total box office range for films released during the schedule is 549-7.74 billion yuan.
5. Aviation stocks are generally on the rise today. By the close, Meilan Airport (00357) rose 3.43% to HK$6.93; China Southern Airlines (01055) rose 2.41% to HK$3.82; Eastern Airlines (00670) rose 0.75% to HK$2.68; and Capital Airport (00694) rose 0.6% to HK$3.38.
According to the data, the average number of daily flights during the holidays this year is expected to increase by 5.2% compared to the same period in 2019, and more than 21 million travelers are expected to fly during the holidays. According to flight managers' forecasts, in terms of domestic capacity, the average number of daily flights during the 2023 National Day holiday exceeded 15,500, which is expected to increase 5.2% over 2019 and 7.1% over the “May Day” holiday in 2023. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the aviation industry is suitable for cyclical investment and has a bottom layout. The long-term average ROE of the aviation industry is low, but profits and stock prices are volatile and highly cyclical, making it suitable for cyclical investment. Cyclic investment should be arranged at the bottom of the cycle, exit at the high point of the cycle, and seize opportunities during the upward phase of the boom. The bottom is weak, and market sentiment is sluggish. It is currently at a low level and is expected to reach an inflection point.
Popular volatile stocks
1. Hong Kong Aerospace Science(01725)AfternoonMove higher.By the close, it was up11.61%, report5.48HKD.
Hong Kong Aerospace Science and Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. and EOS Optoelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. recently held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony at the Hong Kong Satellite Manufacturing Center. The two sides reached a consensus on the “HKATG & EOS (China) Innovative Application Center”. In the future, they will fully integrate resources based on their own technical advantages to help satellite manufacturing with innovative applications of 3D printing. Dongguan Securities pointed out that in recent years, the prosperity of the low-orbit satellite Internet industry has continued to rise. With the continuous spread of commercial applications, the subsequent market space is broad, and at the same time, it is driving rapid development in fields such as satellite manufacturing and operation services.
2. Jiulong Paper(02689)Significant rebound.By the close, it was up5.85%, report4.34Hong Kong dollars.
Since September, a number of paper companies, including Jiulong Paper, have announced increases in paper prices. Some of these paper companies made three rounds of price increases last month. Experts pointed out that this round of price increases in the paper industry was affected by various factors such as macroeconomic recovery, increased market demand, raw material prices, and the “gold, nine, and silver ten” peak season. However, the more important reason is to repair losses caused by the decline in industry sentiment since the second half of last year, while at the same time stimulating market orders. Guohai Securities pointed out that this round of price increases is expected to hedge against the impact of rising raw material prices, and that profit margins for paper companies are expected to recover.
3. Zhongjun Group Holdings(01966)It hit a new low in over 7 years.By the close of the market,Down 9.26%, report0.245Hong Kong dollars.
Zhongjun Group Holdings announced that the company did not pay a total of about 61 million US dollars in principal and interest that have expired in accordance with the syndicated loan agreement signed on March 22, 2021. Unpaid loans have led to a default on the company's overseas US dollar senior notes. In addition, the company will apply to the Stock Exchange to suspend trading of the foreign-dollar senior notes (7.375% senior notes due in April 2024, 5.95% senior notes due in September 2024, 7% senior notes due in May 2025, and 6% senior notes due in February 2026) from 9:00 a.m. on October 5, 2023.