Tianfeng Overseas released a research report saying that currently Hong Kong stock valuations are at a relatively low level, and many domestic economic data have improved marginally. It is expected that with steady growth and growth, market confidence is expected to gradually recover. The bank is still optimistic that Hong Kong stock market valuations will gradually recover from the current low level. Looking at the medium term, with the development of the Hong Kong Stock Science and Technology Network Company's AI model, it is expected that it will continue to attract additional capital allocations.
On the domestic side:
1) Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 30 shows that as policy effects continue to accumulate and positive factors in economic operation continue to increase, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index were 50.2%, 51.7%, and 52.0% respectively, up 0.5, 0.7, and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The three major indices are all within the expansion range, and China's economic prosperity level has rebounded. 2) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 27, profits of regulated industrial enterprises increased 17.2% year-on-year in August. This is the first time since the second half of last year that industrial enterprises achieved positive profit growth in that month. As the effects of a series of policies promoting macroeconomic recovery for the better continue to show, industrial production has steadily rebounded, and the recovery of corporate profits has accelerated markedly. With the steady recovery in industrial production, the connection between production and marketing has improved, and the revenue of industrial enterprises has gradually improved. 3) On September 25, the State Administration of Press and Publication issued the “Domestic Online Game Approval Information for September 2023”. A total of 89 games have been reviewed this time. Among them, the Chinese mobile game “Breaking the Sky: Confrontation at the Peak”, “The Daily Life of a Chat Group”, “The Business Life of Love in the Country”, and “The Land of Doulo: The Legend of Combating Evil” by Kaiying Network have all been reviewed this time.
Overseas side:
1) According to the latest data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 28th, the US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.1% annualized in the second quarter of 2023, slightly lower than 2.2% in the first quarter. 2) The US core PCE price index rose 3.9% year on year in August (previous value: 4.20%), and market expectations were 3.9%, which is basically in line with expectations.
As of September 22, the Hang Seng Index's 12-month outlook PE is 2.1 standard deviations from the median discount since 2013, and is about 2% of the historical quantile since 2013; the Hang Seng Index is 0.9 standard deviations from the median discount since 2013; the Hang Seng Index equity risk premium is 0.3 standard deviations from the historical median, at 62% of the historical quantile value.
Investment advice:
1) Leading platforms where performance is expected to be repaired: Tencent Holdings (00700), Meituan-W (03690), Alibaba-SW (09988), etc.
2) Elasticity targets for Hong Kong stocks under the recovery trend: Bubble Mart (09992), Mingchuang Premium (09896), Cat's Eye Entertainment (01896), etc.;
3) Opportunities in the entertainment content industry under the continuous improvement of the content policy environment: Reading Text Group (00772), Ali Pictures (01060), Xindong Company (02400), etc.;
4) New forces: Ideal Auto - SW (02015), Xiaopeng Motor - SW (09868), etc.
Risk warning: The US and European markets face continued interest rate hikes and high inflation rates; the risk of repeated domestic epidemics; a slowdown in domestic economic growth; and insufficient policy stimulus effects.