Investors were disappointed with the weak earnings posted by China Merchants Land Limited (HKG:978 ). However, our analysis suggests that the soft headline numbers are getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
See our latest analysis for China Merchants Land
Zooming In On China Merchants Land's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
China Merchants Land has an accrual ratio of -0.15 for the year to June 2023. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥11b, well over the CN¥164.0m it reported in profit. Notably, China Merchants Land had negative free cash flow last year, so the CN¥11b it produced this year was a welcome improvement.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of China Merchants Land.
Our Take On China Merchants Land's Profit Performance
China Merchants Land's accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Because of this, we think China Merchants Land's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that China Merchants Land has 4 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of China Merchants Land's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.