The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report stating that injection pens have the core advantages of accurate quantitative injection, independent medical treatment, safe and convenient use, accurately meet the needs of people with long-term medication such as diabetes and weight loss, and are gradually becoming the mainstream injection plan. Reused injection pens accounted for about 81.69% of the total diabetic syringe market in 2021. Global pharmaceutical companies are rushing to lay out GLP-1, driven by related products represented by Novo Nordisk's 10 billion dollar single product, smeglutide,It is estimated that the global market of nearly 100 billion US dollars in the two major fields of diabetes and obesity will accelerate, and the catalytic industry will welcome new development opportunities.
▍ The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:
Injection pens cover a wide range of patients, and the market for downstream diabetes+weight loss related drugs exceeds 100 billion. GLP-1 promotes new opportunities for injection pens:
Injection pens have the core advantages of accurate quantitative injection, independent medical treatment, safe and convenient use. They accurately meet the needs of people with long-term medication such as diabetes and weight loss, and are gradually becoming the mainstream injection plan. Reused injection pens accounted for about 81.69% of the total diabetic syringe market in 2021.
Global pharmaceutical companies are rushing to deploy GLP-1, driven by related products represented by Novo Nordisk's 10 billion dollar single product, smeglutide. It is expected that the global market for the two major fields of diabetes and obesity will accelerate expansion of nearly 100 billion US dollars, and the catalytic industry will welcome new development opportunities.
Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Sanofi account for 80% of the global share of injection pens. Patent barriers for injection pens are high, and domestic production is accelerating breakthroughs:
There are more than 1,500 patents for the core structure of insulin pens, and most of them have been squandered by foreign companies. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi account for 80% of the injection pen market. As the insulin patents expire, YPS has successively become a mainstream cost-effective foundry with Swiss technology. As a representative, Hansi, a domestically developed pen, took the lead in breaking through import barriers.
The core link is the right time to replace domestic production. The gap in global production capacity has given rise to import replacement opportunities for injection pen brands, OEM, and automation equipment upstream in the production chain:
Taking insulin as an example, injection pens account for about 10% to 20% of the value. Resuming YPS's growth path, performance is strongly correlated with downstream customer development and changes in demand for new products. In the 22s, YPS earned 310 million Swiss francs, and the company expects a 25% growth rate in '23. The current round of GLP market expansion is expected to catalyze a new round of growth in the industry. Demand from major global customers, production capacity gaps, and reduced procurement prices will drive domestic replacement of domestic upstream main equipment brands, foundries, and automation equipment.
The targets that benefit upstream in the injection pen industry chain:
1) Beautiful Healthcare (301363.SZ): Starting with ventilator foundry, expanding the blood sugar weight reduction foundry market with technical advantages such as liquid silicone and molds; 2) Maide Healthcare (688310.SH): Leading domestic production of high-end medical consumables automation equipment, and upstream insulin pen equipment is expected to be replaced by domestic production; 3) Hansi (not listed): It has successfully broken through the patent barrier of injection pens, and is expected to reshape the monopoly pattern based on import price and production capacity advantages.
Risk warning:
Patent infringement risk: If patent infringement occurs, long-term legal disputes may occur, leading to damage to the company's market share, profits, and reputation.
Commercialization falls short of expected risk: If the amount of product released falls short of expectations, it will cause the bound drug delivery device to be greatly affected.
Orders fall short of expected risk: If the OEM's production capacity expands rapidly but fails to get matching orders, it will have a big impact on the OEM's revenue and profits.
Production line capacity building falls short of the expected risk: if corporate orders grow rapidly, but production line capacity construction matching them cannot be completed, it will have a great impact on the company's market share and profitability.