Zhitong Financial APP learned that Ping an Securities released a research report that photovoltaic copper plating is the electrodeposition of metal copper on the substrate surface to make battery copper grid wire, which has lower silver paste cost, better electrical conductivity, better plasticity and high-width ratio than traditional silver paste screen printing, and is expected to replace the screen printing technology with high silver consumption, helping HJT, XBC and other batteries to reduce costs, increase efficiency and large-scale production. At present, HJT cost reduction and efficiency and downstream bidding progress accelerated, XBC battery to obtain more enterprise reserves and mass production layout, silver-free copper plating technology permeability is expected to increase. It is expected that silver-coated copper + 0BB/NBB will be the main cost reduction path for mass production of HJT batteries in the short term. Copper plating is expected to speed up the pilot test in 2023-2024 and gradually put into mass production in 2024.
The main points of Ping an Securities are as follows:
Copper plating helps to reduce cost and increase efficiency in the metallization link of photovoltaic cells.
The metallization link mainly produces the electrode grid line of photovoltaic cells. at present, silver paste screen printing is the main flow production route. With the rapid discharge of N-type battery, the consumption of silver paste is significantly higher than that of PERC. The high cost of silver paste is one of the pain points that restrict the acceleration of N-type battery industrialization. Copper plating has significant advantages as a revolutionary technology without silver. Photovoltaic copper plating is to deposit metal copper on the surface of the substrate to make battery copper grid wire. Compared with traditional silver paste screen printing, photovoltaic copper plating has lower silver paste cost, better electrical conductivity, better plasticity and aspect ratio. It is expected to replace the screen printing technology with high silver consumption and help HJT, XBC and other batteries to reduce cost and increase efficiency and large-scale production.
The photovoltaic copper plating process focuses on graphics and electroplating, and the technical route has not yet been finalized.
The main process of copper plating includes seed layer deposition, graphics, electroplating and post-processing. At present, the technical routes of each link are different, and a variety of combined process schemes are in parallel. Graphics includes mask, exposure, development and other steps. The main technologies include LDI laser direct writing lithography, conventional mask lithography, laser slotting, inkjet printing and so on. Laser direct writing lithography without mask has great application potential, and laser slotting has been widely used in BC batteries. The electroplating process mainly includes vertical plating, horizontal plating, plug-in plating, flexible contact plating and other routes. Dongwei Technology, Jidebao, Robotco, Sunwell and other different technical solutions are promoting client verification. With the improvement of comprehensive performance and cost process optimization, photovoltaic copper plating is expected to gradually clarify the technical route and process combination plan in 2024.
Copper plating is expected to speed up the pilot test and gradually introduce mass production, the market space will be further opened.
At present, HJT cost reduction and efficiency and downstream bidding progress accelerated, XBC battery to obtain more enterprise reserves and mass production layout, silver-free copper plating technology permeability is expected to increase. Compared with the silver-coated copper + 0BB/NBB process, the production progress of electroplating copper is slower, and the advantage is that it can help the battery to improve the efficiency of 0.3-0.5% + (absolute quantity), thus increasing the power of high-end components. It is expected that silver-coated copper + 0BB/NBB will be the main cost reduction path for mass production of HJT batteries in the short term. Copper plating is expected to speed up the pilot test in 2023-2024 and gradually put into mass production in 2024. With the continuous optimization of process economy, the development advantage of copper plating is expected to be strengthened. It is estimated that by 2025-2026, the market space of photovoltaic copper plating equipment is expected to reach 34-7.2 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: copper plating has significant development potential, which is expected to contribute to the large-scale development of HJT and XBC batteries.
Investment layout recommendations focus on three main lines:
1) the equipment market is expected to open, it is recommended to pay attention to copper plating graphic equipment manufacturers such as 300331.SZ, 300776.SZ, and electroplating equipment manufacturers 300757.SZ, 300751.SZ, 688700.SH and so on.
2) the economic optimization of copper plating needs the cooperation of upstream material enterprises to reduce the cost, so it is suggested to pay attention to the wet film and photoresist enterprise 300537.SZ.
3) non-silver technology helps battery module enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, it is recommended to pay attention to the layout and reserve of copper plating process head XBC and HJT battery module enterprises Longji shares (601012.SH), Aixu shares (600732.SH), Tongwei shares (600438.SH), Oriental Sunrise (300118.SZ) and so on.
Risk Tips:The risk that the market demand is lower than expected; the risk that the maturity of electroplating copper technology is less than expected; the mass production application of silver-clad copper and 0BB/NBB makes the introduction of electroplating copper decline urgently; the risk of deterioration of the competition pattern of electroplating copper technology.