The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report stating that the initial policy has been gradually recognized by the market. The economic data for August have improved month-on-month, and Sino-US relations have recently warmed up.There is a strong signal at the bottom of the market, so it is best to firmly hold on to the bargain and welcome a new round of market conditions.Configuration idea: The layout revolves around “low level+certainty of fundamental improvement”. Considering that the three-quarter results forecast disclosure period will be reached after the holidays, special attention should be paid to the direction of significant improvement in Q3 performance over month. Industry recommendations: non-ferrous metals, petroleum, semiconductors, communications, liquor, consumer building materials, banks, automotive zero, etc.

▍ The main views of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:

The economic data is good, and the market bottom signal is strong.

Since August 27, real estate policies and active capital market policies have been introduced intensively. The policy base has already been confirmed. Judging from Wandequan A's trend, the market bottom is gradually being formed. Historically, the average profit of the broad-based index after the holiday was 0.5%-2%, and there is a high probability that the October market will be strong.

The FOMC interest rate meeting was suspended for hawks, and after the holiday, attention was paid to the release of important economic data at home and abroad.

At the September interest rate meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds target interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, in line with market expectations. This is the second time since this round of interest rate hikes has been suspended, but it is expected that interest rates will be raised again before the end of the year. The 11th Golden Week is approaching. According to data from relevant platforms, bookings for hotels, restaurants, airlines, railways, etc. have all increased significantly during the holiday season.

From the end of September to the beginning of October, important economic data such as the domestic PMI and the US unemployment rate were released, focusing on whether various domestic policies have begun to have positive effects after recent intensive implementation, as well as the foreign economic situation and monetary policy trends.

Under the combination of current low level+no obvious disadvantages in the future, it is inappropriate to further reduce positions in terms of configuration; instead, it is appropriate to lay out a layout around “low level+improving certainty in fundamentals.”

Considering that the three-quarter results forecast disclosure period will be right after the holidays, we need to pay particular attention to the direction of significant improvement in Q3 performance. Focus on three clues: 1) The direction of resource products that simultaneously benefit from supply logic and demand recovery are excellent, petroleum, etc.; 2) The post-real estate cycle chain+optional consumption, which is expected to benefit from an improvement in the real estate sales situation and potential policies in the later stages, focusing on consumer building materials/homes, banks, and liquor; 3) Communications, consumer electronics/semiconductors, where Q3 performance is clearly improving.

Risk warning:

Geopolitical risks, the degree of overseas Federal Reserve austerity has exceeded expectations, and domestic economic recovery or steady growth policy implementation results have fallen short of expectations.