CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited's (HKG:1093) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.
View our latest analysis for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group
Examining Cashflow Against CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has an accrual ratio of 0.22 for the year to June 2023. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥2.0b during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥6.09b. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Profit Performance
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 47% over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored).
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.