Zhitong Financial APP learned that according to a research report released by Guojin Securities, the development of short-term related real estate enterprises still has a great impact on property enterprises, and developers of state-owned enterprises perform better than private enterprises in terms of sales, land acquisition and financing.Some central state-owned enterprises and improved housing enterprises have competitive advantages.Is expected to achieve the strong Hengqiang, so the short-term performance of state-owned enterprises is more robust, recommend Poly property (06049) and so on. At the same time, it is also optimistic about Binjiang Service (03316). Although its related housing enterprises are private enterprises, they operate steadily and cultivate the Zhejiang region with good fundamentals, focusing on middle and high-end improved products, and their sales are expected to maintain positive growth throughout the year.

The main points of ▍ Guojin Securities are as follows:

The overall income growth slowed, and the growth rate of state-owned enterprises was higher than that of private enterprises.

The total income of 50 listed property enterprises in the first half of 2023 was 124.8 billion yuan, + 9.4% compared with the same period last year, which was significantly slower than the growth rate of 27.8% in the same period in 2022. It is mainly because: the non-owner value-added services with high correlation between ① and real estate have been greatly affected and declined greatly; ② community value-added services have been repositioned and most companies have adjusted their structures. Among them, the growth rate of income of state-owned enterprises and property enterprises is + 19.5%, that of private enterprises and non-extended property enterprises is + 11.6%, that of private enterprises and extended property enterprises is-1.2%, and that of unrelated real estate enterprises is + 15.0%.

At present, there is an obvious differentiation between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, which is consistent with the differentiation trend of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in the real estate industry, mainly because the current performance of state-owned enterprise developers is better than that of most private developers in sales, land acquisition, financing and other aspects. to be able to give more support to related property enterprises.

The profit growth rate of state-owned enterprises has slowed, while the profits of most private enterprises have declined.

The total net profit of 50 listed property enterprises in the first half of 2023 was 11.1 billion yuan, + 0.4% compared with the same period last year. Mainly because: ① most property enterprises comprehensive gross profit margin decline. Some private property enterprises in ② set aside a large amount of impairment corresponding to accounts receivable, resulting in large losses in the current period. ③ provides for impairment of goodwill. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and non-extended property enterprises is + 26.2%,-1.4%, + 4.8% (large impairment in the same period last year, releasing performance pressure), and + 0.6% for unrelated real estate enterprises.

The degree of profit differentiation between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises is more significant than income differentiation, mainly because private enterprises are not as good as state-owned enterprises in terms of gross profit margin decline and accounts receivable-goodwill impairment.

The turnover days of trade receivables have become a common problem in the industry.

In 2023, the total turnover days of trade receivables of 50 listed property enterprises in the first half of 2023 are about 121 days, an increase of about 13 days compared with the end of 2022. This is mainly due to the influence of the macro environment of ①, the collection of property fees is not as good as in previous years; the account period of ② ToG business has been lengthened; and the ability of private developers to pay when they are in trouble has declined. The median days of turnover of trade receivables in state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and unrenewed property enterprises, private enterprises and unrelated real estate enterprises in the first half of 2023 were 79 days, 125 days, 171 days and 109 days respectively.

Goodwill has declined and mergers and acquisitions tend to be cautious.

In the first half of 2023, the goodwill of 50 listed property enterprises totaled 35.5 billion yuan, down 13.4 percent from the same period last year and 6.8 percent from the end of 2022. Mainly because listed property companies continue to take a cautious attitude towards mergers and acquisitions. According to the Central finger Academy, a total of 70 mergers and acquisitions occurred in listed property enterprises in the first half of 2023, but the transaction consideration was generally small, with only one case in which the amount of individual mergers and acquisitions exceeded 500m yuan. The total consideration of mergers and acquisitions was only 2.5 billion yuan, down 66 per cent from the same period last year.

Basic property management is highly anti-cyclical, and the growth rate of state-owned enterprises is faster than that of private enterprises.

Because of the business model of "stock + increment", basic material management drives growth through "endogenous + external expansion" and is highly anti-cyclical. The basic property management income of the 20 sample enterprises in the first half of 2023 grew by 16% year-on-year, the fastest of all businesses, and the share of total income increased by 4 percentage points to 65% compared with the same period in 2022. Non-owner value-added service income fell 17% from the same period last year, accounting for 3 percentage points to 9% of total revenue, while community value-added service revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, down 8 percentage points from the same period last year.

Since 2022, the growth rate of the area under management of state-owned enterprises is higher than that of private enterprises. By the middle of 2023, the area under management of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and non-extended property enterprises, private enterprises and extended property enterprises were + 27.6%, + 15.2% and + 8.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and + 13.2%, + 6.4% and + 4.9% respectively compared with the end of 2022.

Mainly due to: ① private property enterprises related to the new delivery area of housing enterprises decreased, while the delivery pace of state-owned enterprises is stable. ② state-owned enterprises and property enterprises have become the protagonists of the M & A market. The reputation of some private enterprises in ③ has been damaged, and the extension is not as expected. ④ a number of private property enterprises from the focus on growth to focus on quality, out of a large number of inefficient disk.

Risk hint

The degree of recovery of real estate sales is lower than expected; vicious competition in the external market; poor development of value-added services; bad debts of accounts receivable exceed expectations; goodwill impairment risk.