Zhitong Financial APP learned that Anxin Securities released a research report that, combined with the analysis of the rules, the new trauma collection policy can be summarized as follows: 1) the pressure for selection is reduced, which can reduce the vicious price competition among enterprises to a certain extent, giving small and medium-sized manufacturers more space; 2) the highest effective prices set this time are significantly higher than those in previous sets, which provides a reference anchor for enterprises' price declaration. 3) with the further improvement of market concentration, the leader will benefit, on the one hand, the share of reporting volume will increase, and on the other hand, the price margin will improve. To sum up, it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought about by the expected increase in performance growth and valuation repair of the main targets of the orthopaedic track.
Related subject matter:Weigao Orthopaedics (688161.SH), Dabo Medical (002901.SZ), Chunli Medical (688236.SH), Aikang Medical (01789), Sanyou Medical (688085.SH), etc.
The main points of Anxin Securities are as follows:
The scale of collection is larger than the previous round, the whole country except Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang will participate, the demand for the first year is more than 1.41 million, and the share of Dabo Medical and Weigao Orthopaedics has increased.
1) the collection area and cycle length of this round: nationwide collection, except Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, that is, corresponding to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei "3n" alliance + Henan 12-province alliance; the procurement cycle lasts for two years.
2) purchase variety and purchase quantity: including ordinary bone plate system, locking compression plate system (including universal) and intramedullary nail system, the total procurement demand in the first year is about 1411018 (cumulative according to the purchase demand submitted by each medical institution participating in this centralized purchase).
3) reporting share: domestic leaders still occupy the main share, including more than 270000 sets of Dabo Medical, more than 150000 sets of Vega Orthopaedics, and more than 120000 sets of Zhengtian Medical, with the corresponding share of 19% +, 10% + and 9% respectively. The first two reported volume shares have further increased compared with the previous round.
By adding the "bottom protection mechanism" to the collection rules, it is less difficult for enterprises to obtain the qualification of the proposed selection.
1) grouping rules: under the same category, group A (top 80% of cumulative demand) and group B are divided into group A (top 80% of cumulative demand) and group B according to the purchasing demand of medical institutions and the supply capacity of enterprises. If there is no representative product system, all the enterprises will enter Group C.
2) shortlist rules: in An and B bidding units, the price is sorted from low to high, and the shortlisted enterprises are determined. The policy divides the number of finalists according to the number of enterprises effectively declared. After calculation, the shortlist ratio is basically in the range of 60% and 70%.
3) the proposed selection rules: if the declared price of the products of the shortlisted enterprises is not higher than the highest valid quotation, and there is no association between registrants (agents) or enterprises in the same bidding unit, the shortlisted enterprises are deemed to be selected.
4) guarantee mechanism: if the declaring enterprise of the bidding unit A does not obtain the proposed successful selection qualification, it can directly obtain the proposed successful selection qualification if the competitive price comparison price is not higher than the highest price of the proposed successful selection of the bidding unit B. other valid declaration enterprises that do not obtain the proposed successful selection qualification can also directly obtain the proposed successful selection qualification if the competitive price ≤ is the most effective bid in the same procurement package.
Combined with the above rules, it can be inferred that in this collection, there is more than one layer of resurrection / bottom protection mechanism. finally, as long as the declared price of the enterprise is lower than the highest effective price, the final qualification can be obtained with high probability. The main difference is the share, most of which will be concentrated on companies that rank higher in the rankings.
The highest effective price set by each purchase package is significantly higher than that of the previous round of collection prices.
1) ordinary bone plate: in 2021, the lowest price is 208.71 yuan and the highest price is 821.86 yuan. The lowest price is 474 yuan (scapular plate) and the highest price is 1265 yuan (sternal plate).
2) locking pressurized bone plate system (including universal): in 2021, the lowest price is 394.78 yuan and the highest price is 1161.6 yuan. The lowest price is 909 yuan (scapular plate) and the highest price is 1344 yuan (rib plate).
3) Intramedullary nail system: in 2021, the lowest price was 523.89 yuan and the highest price was 1495.33 yuan. The lowest price is 535 yuan (locking intramedullary nail, elastic intramedullary nail) and the highest price is 2134 yuan (foot-ankle intramedullary nail).
Risk Tips:The uncertainty of the follow-up policy; the risk of fluctuations in the volume of surgery in the industry; the uncertainty about the listing and promotion of new products.