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中金:动力电池退役浪潮已至 行业处在长景气周期的起点

CICC: The wave of power battery retirement has reached the beginning of a long boom cycle

Zhitong Finance ·  09/19/2023 09:28

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that the wave of power battery retirement has arrived.The industry is at the beginning of a long boom cycleIt is estimated that by 2027, the global lithium battery recycling market will reach 164.4 billion yuan. Currently, the ESG attributes of lithium battery recycling are becoming more and more prominent, industry standardization is developing at an accelerated pace, and attention is being paid to lithium battery recycling companies with channel advantages.

▍ The main views of CICC are as follows:

The ESG attributes of lithium battery recycling have been highlighted, enhancing the strategic position of the industry.

Lithium battery recycling is related to strategic metal resources and carbon emission reduction of power batteries. It is a renewable resource sector with strong ESG attributes. With the implementation of the EU's new battery law, the carbon barrier for power batteries may rise. The metal properties and carbon emission reduction properties of lithium battery recycling strategies may become more and more important, affecting the competitiveness of cathode materials and lithium battery companies, and the need for standardized development of the industry.

The market mechanism needs to be improved urgently, and implementation of policy standards may be accelerated.

The influx of new entrants from the lithium battery recycling market has had an impact on whitelist companies. On the one hand, it squeezes out the market share of whitelisted companies, and on the other hand, it has caused the cost of used batteries to rise sharply. Companies on the white list accounted for only 2-3 percent of recycling volume in 2021. Fierce competition has led to a high discount factor for lithium battery recycling since 2022. As a result, the increase in the cost of used batteries clearly exceeds the increase in revenue. Increased competition has become an important factor limiting the profit level of recycling.

The scrap car dismantling and metal hazardous waste recycling industry related to lithium battery recycling also had a serious “bad money expels good money” phenomenon in the early stages of development. Since then, improvements in policy standards and strengthened supervision have effectively promoted the standardized development of the industry.

With the advent of the lithium battery retirement wave, the urgency of standardized development of the industry and the government's emphasis are constantly increasing, and the establishment of policy standards and recycling systems may accelerate.

Channels are the core element of competition. Focus on the channel layout of each enterprise and the development of each channel.

For renewable resource companies, the pattern is mainly affected by the acquisition of raw materials. There are three core channels for lithium battery recycling: scrap car dismantling, power battery recycling outlets, and power battery manufacturers. The first two sources are mainly for retired batteries, and the share of channels may increase in the future. Unlike other renewable resource sectors, lithium battery recycling channel companies and recycling companies have more complicated commercial relationships and demands. The recycling price is still important, but it is not the only competitive factor worth paying attention to.

Car companies tend to cooperate with upstream suppliers, and lithium battery companies tend to cooperate with leading cathode materials to arrange recycling. This type of channel is somewhat exclusive. The economic nature of lithium battery recycling and the extension of the upstream and downstream industrial chain have contributed to channel construction.

risks

Standardized development of the industry fell short of expectations; channel construction and development fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified; metal prices fluctuated, etc.

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