Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report sayingProperty management enterprises have ushered in the inflection point of double-click performance valuation.The drag on performance from the epidemic and mergers and acquisitions has come to an end, and profitability and cash flow have improved. Although short-term valuation repair is still related to property anchoring, depending on the fundamental recovery after the introduction of property policy, the medium-term valuation will return to the cash flow industry logic, and there is room for continuous repair in the overall valuation. Due to the support of the parent company, the performance of central state-owned enterprises will be repaired more quickly, with emphasis on Poly property (06049), etc., while the valuation of high-quality private enterprises is more flexible, with emphasis on new Dazheng (002968.SZ), etc.
The main points of ▍ Soochow Securities are as follows:
Trend 1: performance differentiation, profit recovery, cash flow improvement.
(1) the revenue growth rate of the industry slows down and the performance is divided: the revenue growth rate of the 2023H1 property management industry is 8.9% compared with the same period last year, which is lower than that of 2022 by 10.9pct. The net profit of 2023H1, a central state-owned enterprise, grew by 28.4% over the same period last year, maintaining a steady growth trend, while private enterprises grew by-10.3% in the first half of the year, mainly due to a sharp decline in business income from related parties and impairment losses.
(2) the gross profit margin stops the downward trend, is expected to stabilize and pick up in the second half of the year, and the gap between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises continues to narrow. The comprehensive gross profit margin of the 2023H1 industry is 21.7%, an increase of 0.5pct from 21.2% in 2022, and the profitability of the industry has stopped falling and stabilized. The comprehensive gross profit margin of private enterprises in the first half of the year is 21.8%, while that of central state-owned enterprises is 21.6%. The gap between the two continues to narrow.
(3) the industry returns to the business logic of cash flow, and the operating cash flow is greatly improved. Among the 10 sample property companies that have disclosed the cash flow statement, 7 2023H1 operating cash flow has improved compared with the same period last year; the sample companies have plenty of cash on hand, private enterprise capital is back on the growth track, and the dividend payout rate is expected to remain high in 2023.
Trend 2: slow is fast, quality is more important than quantity.
The era of extensive growth of the industry "horse enclosure" has passed, and the current property companies pay more attention to quality rather than quantity in terms of expansion: (1) the growth rate of contract area slows down, pays attention to regional density, and focuses on high-energy cities: the overall contract area of 2023H1 property management industry is growing at 3.0% year on year, which is significantly lower than 14.2% in 2022. The scale of central state-owned enterprises and related small private enterprises is growing faster. A number of property companies expand the upgrading of urban energy levels, focus on deep ploughing advantage areas, and take the initiative to withdraw from low-quality and inefficient projects.
(2) increase the proportion of non-residential forms: focus on the "three high" projects with high threshold, high value and high volume, such as schools, hospitals, airports and so on.
(3) the M & A market continues to cool down. The total amount of M & A transactions disclosed by 2023H1 listed property companies is 870 million yuan, which is significantly lower than the total amount of 104.0 yuan in 2022.
Trend 3: return to the origin and de-cyclization.
Since 2023, property companies have gradually got rid of their dependence on related party real estate companies: (1) strengthen the ability of external expansion and increase the area proportion of third-party projects, and the future performance growth of property companies will be more resistant to the real estate cycle: the proportion of third-party projects in the 2023H1 property management industry is 58.0%, which further improves 2.7pct compared with 55.3% in 2022. Among them, private enterprises accounted for 61.7% of third-party projects in the first half of the year, while central state-owned enterprises accounted for 47.0% of 7.8pct compared with 2022.
(2) the development of value-added services has returned to the logic of improving owner satisfaction, and the growth rate of home decoration and real estate intermediary business has dropped sharply: the subdivision of community growth services has focused more on life services, and the logic has shifted from the previous increase in corporate revenue to the improvement of owner satisfaction.
(3) the proportion of basic property service income increases again, while the proportion of cyclical attribute business decreases. The income of basic property services in the 2023H1 property management industry accounted for 65.3%, an increase of 3.4pct from 61.9% in 2022, while that of private enterprises 2023H1 non-owner value-added services accounted for 9.1%, which was significantly lower than that in 2022. 8.7pct.
Risk Tips:
The project delivered by major shareholders / related parties is not as large as expected; the recovery of real estate sales is not as expected; the recovery of total social demand is slow; and the scale of extension is not as expected.