华泰证券:上半年锂电产业去库存盈利普遍承压 国内大储利润上涨弹性较大

Huatai Securities: In the first half of the year, profits from inventory removal in the lithium battery industry were generally under pressure, and profits from large domestic reserves increased with great flexibility

Zhitong Finance ·  09/13/2023 10:21

Zhitong Finance App learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that revenue from the power equipment and new energy sector continued to grow rapidly in 1H23, +22% year-on-year, and profits moved from upstream to downstream. The lithium battery industry chain is affected by inventory removal and increased competition, and profits are generally under pressure. The bank suggests focusing on clearly structured batteries, electrolytes, lithium iron phosphate taps, targets with a second growth curve, and new technology directions. The profitability of integrated photovoltaic module companies increased year-on-year in Q2. It is recommended to pay attention. Furthermore, the new energy storage industry is booming, and household storage performance is strong in the European market. Large domestic reserves are moving towards a period of verification and release, and profit growth is quite flexible.

The main views of Huatai Securities are as follows:

New energy vehicles: low profitability, waiting for an inflection point

1H23 domestic sales of new energy vehicles and installed power batteries maintained a year-on-year increase, and the US market grew brilliantly. However, due to factors such as the transmission of price reduction pressure on the vehicle side, the removal of inventory from the industrial chain, and increased competition, the pressure on the industrial chain to reduce prices is high. Companies in the 1H23 industry chain generally showed a phenomenon of volume increase and price reduction. In particular, production capacity of lithium battery materials was released a lot, competition intensified, and profitability declined sharply. The bank remains optimistic about long-term demand under the electrification trend. The sector currently has configuration value. It is recommended to focus on 1) the pattern is clear, future profitability is expected to be relatively stable, and batteries, electrolytes, and lithium iron phosphate leaders with safety margins; 2) the profitability of the lithium battery business has bottomed out, and individual stocks with new high-growth businesses; 3) new technology directions such as fast charging, composite foils, and lithium manganese-iron phosphate.

Photovoltaics: Downstream demand is strong, and industrial chain profits are shifting to the middle and downstream

In terms of volume, in the first half of 2023, 78.43 GW of domestic photovoltaics were added, an increase of 153.98% over the previous year. The CPIA raised the forecast for new PV installations in China in 2023 from 95-120 GW to 120-140 GW. According to data from the Energy Administration, China's photovoltaic module exports reached 108 GW in 23H1, an increase of 37.3% over the previous year. In terms of profitability, with the sharp drop in silicon prices and the shift in profits in the photovoltaic industry chain to the middle and downstream, the gross margin of upstream silicon companies in Q2 has declined sharply, and the profitability of integrated module companies in Q2 has increased sharply over the same period last year. Looking at the second half of the year, the boom in the industry continues. It is recommended to focus on: 1) granular silicon with leading costs and increasing market share; 2) leading battery and component companies with N-type layouts.

Wind power: Sea wind constraints are gradually receding, and industry prosperity is increasing

The new installed capacity of 1H23 wind power increased year-on-year: According to data from the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of 1H23 domestic wind power reached 22.99 GW, an increase of 77.67% over the previous year. As the factors limiting offshore wind installation gradually recede in the second half of the year, the bank believes that the industry's installed capacity is expected to continue to maintain a year-on-year growth trend. It is expected that the annual new domestic onshore/offshore wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 55/6 GW, an increase of 23.1%/16.3% over last year's CWEA statistics. Looking at the profit side, due to the decline in tender prices for wind turbines, the overall revenue growth rate of wind power is slower than the industry's installed capacity growth rate, and the profit of the fan sector has declined seriously, so the profits of component companies have recovered due to falling raw material prices. The ocean wind policy is expected to be implemented intensively in the second half of the year. The bank suggests focusing on towers and submarine cable links. Delivery volume may benefit from a month-on-month increase in seabreeze installed capacity.

Energy storage: The industry is booming, and the volume of large domestic reserves is expected to rise

The new energy storage industry is booming. In 1H23, a new energy storage scale of 8.0 GW/16.7 GW/16.7 GW/was put into operation domestically, exceeding the level for the full year of '22 (7.3 GW/15.9 GW/). There was strong growth in storage and installed capacity in the European market. The sector's revenue and net profit were +94.1%/203.1%, and profitability increased significantly. High demand unleashed scale effects, compounded by falling raw material prices and shipping costs, which led to an increase in gross and net interest rates in the industry. 1H23 gross/net interest rates were 30.79/ 15.22% respectively, up 3.08/2.89 pct compared to the full year of '22. The bank believes that large domestic reserves are moving towards a verification and release period, that profit growth is more flexible, and can support higher valuation levels.

Risk warning:The increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and industrial chain profits fell short of expectations; the growth rate of photovoltaic installations fell short of expectations, and the level of intense competition in the industry exceeded expectations; and wind power installations fell short of expectations.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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