Zhitong Financial APP learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that compared with overseas mature markets, the product structure and profit margins of China's leading beer enterprises still have much room for improvement, and the main logic of high-end industry continues to deduce and realize solidly, which the bank believes is determined by product attributes, industry upgrading stage, and industry competition situation. Therefore, the high end of beer is jointly driven by both supply and demand, which is also the core reason why the industry has reversed the trend in recent years under the disturbance of epidemic situation and macro background, the product structure shows a trend of accelerated upgrading, and the leading profitability shows strength and toughness. Based on the strong certainty of profit release, we are optimistic about the allocation value of the sector at the current valuation level (near 5-year low).
It is suggested that we should pay attention to the main line of beer competition and investment logic in the medium and long term: we mainly recommend Tsing Tao Beer (600600.SH), Chongqing Beer (600132.SH), Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ), and pay attention to Zhujiang Beer (002461.SZ).
The main points of Minsheng Securities are as follows:
23H1's performance is solid and its profitability continues to improve.
Under the background of the steady increase of volume and price in China's beer industry, the performance of the 23H1 beer sector is steady, with a steady increase in revenue and a high increase in net profit. 23Q2, with the gradual recovery of the downstream current drinking scene, the steady upgrading of the industry product structure, the leading wine companies' ton prices are generally faster than Q1, at the same time, the marginal cost pressure has slowed down, and profitability has accelerated. 23H1A shares beer sector revenue 40.973 billion yuan, year-on-year + 10.72%, return to the mother net profit of 5.21 billion yuan, year-on-year + 21.65%. 23Q2's revenue was 21.489 billion yuan, + 8.57% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 3.223 billion yuan, + 17.23% compared with the same period last year.
The price of Q2 tons is faster than the previous month, and the cost pressure is alleviated quarter by quarter.
23H1 leading sales generally increased in the high single digits, except Yan Beer and Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited, the leading sales have returned to before the epidemic. The proportion of high-end products in the 23H1 industry accelerated. The China tonnage price of Tsingtao Beer / heavy Beer / Yanjing / Pearl Beer / China Resources / Budweiser increased by 5.28%, 2.31%, 3.72%, 6.06%, 4.38%, 5.5%, respectively. National leaders generally recorded medium-unit growth, and the tonnage price of single Q2 wine enterprises generally increased compared with the previous month. The optimization is significant, reflecting the acceleration of the structural upgrading process under the steady recovery of the drinking scene. On the profit side, as the price of 22H2 package enters the downward channel, the 23H1 cost dividend is gradually transmitted to the reporting end of wine companies. The cost of Tsingtao Beer / heavy Beer / Yanjing / Zhuhai Beer / China Resources / Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is + 3.39%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. 2.68%, 0.86%, 1.78%, 0.99, 3.65%, respectively, and the pressure is alleviated quarter by quarter. At the same time, the industry pattern is stable, the cost of wine enterprises is reasonable, and the efficiency continues to improve. The net interest rates of 23Q2 Tsingtao Beer, heavy Beer, Yanjing Beer and Pearl Beer are + 0.99pct, + 1.19pct, + 1.78pct and + 0.52pct respectively compared with the same period last year.
Sales base pressure clear, optimistic about 23H2 ton price elasticity, it is recommended to pay attention to the end of the year cost and price increase is good for catalysis.
1) quantity: leading wine enterprises generally face high base pressure from July to August this year, mainly due to the catalysis of high temperature in the peak sales season last year, and the catering scene has recovered after the inflection point of the epidemic, but the base pressure of leading sales will be significantly reduced from September. 2) structure: the 22H2 tonne price base dropped month-on-month, mainly due to the slow recovery of 22Q3 high potential energy scenes (mid-and high-end catering, night shows), and high temperature weather further catalyzed the sales of mainstream price products, resulting in no obvious optimization of ready-to-drink channel structure, while 22Q4 was affected by epidemic counterattack + infection peak. Under the recovery of the scene this year, the logic of improving the industry structure is expected to continue to be realized, and we are optimistic about the price elasticity of 23H2 wine companies. 3) cost: the follow-up raw material price decline dividend is expected to further transmit to the report end, Australia and wheat double anti-policy cancellation is good for next year's cost, it is recommended to pay attention to the price situation of the new purchasing season at the end of the year; 4) price increase: it is recommended that Q4 pay attention to the regular price increase action of wine enterprises in the off-season.
Risk Tips:The scene of current beverage consumption is less than expected; the price of raw materials has risen more than expected; and the competition between middle and high-end beer has intensified.