Dongwu Securities: Industrial Control still has structural opportunities under weak investment, and grid investment can be expected overall in the second half of the year

Zhitong Finance · Sep 9, 2023 19:19

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研究报告称，需求仍处于周期底部，传统OEM行业普遍承压，刺激政策预期+去年低基数等因素下，2023H2有望好于H1。2023年电网投资仍稳中略增，网内市场依旧强调特高压、配网智能化、调度等结构性方向，网外发电侧+海外高景气度驱动订单高增。泛工控领域：重点推荐汇川技术(300124.SZ)等，推荐雷赛智能(002979.SZ);主网&特高压重点推荐：平高电气(600312.SH)等，关注：中国西电(601179.SH)等;出海&用电侧重点推荐：金盘科技(688676.SH)等，关注：苏文电能(300982.SZ)等;其他电力设备重点推荐：南网科技(301355.SZ)，关注：科陆电子(002121.SZ)等。

东吴证券主要观点如下：

工控&电力设备行业2023H1收入+14 %、归母净利润+11%，2023Q2收入+12 %、归母净利润-3%。

1)行业2023H1营收&归母净利润稳定增长。全行业2023H1实现收入/归母净利润3861.72/295.97亿元，同比+14%/+11%。其中2023Q2收入2114.94亿元，同比+12%，归母净利润为159.86亿元，同比-3%。2)行业整体毛利率水平小幅下降。2023H1/2023Q2行业毛利率为22.88%/22.37%，同比-0.18pct/-0.98pct(2023Q2环比-1.13pct)。

3)2023H1应收账款/合同负债/存货较年初 +13%/-4%/+10%，可能原因为随营收规模增长等。4)2023H1经营性现金流净流入135.66亿元，同比明显提升。

工控行业2023H1发展势头稳健，内资头部企业紧抓先进制造结构性机会，仍保持不错增长。龙头企业如汇川技术、宏发股份表现亮眼，宏发股份在经济下行压力下仍维持稳健增长。

1)2023H1营收、利润均有所增长。2023H1/2023Q2工控板块实现收入469.58/260.03亿元，同比+20.40%/+24.75%，实现归母净利润54.51/30.64亿元，同比+27.69 %/+12.92%。2)2023H1利润率小幅提升。2023H1/2023Q2板块毛利率31.52%/31.88%，同比+0.74 pct/+0.52pct。

3)2023H1应收账款/合同负债/存货较年初 +13.54%/+9.02%/-0.83%，经营性现金流入44.16亿元，经营现金流水平大幅提升。4)公司层面，工控龙头汇川技术2023H1营收/归母净利润同比+19.76%/+5.17%，发展势头持续稳定良好。继电器龙头宏发股份高压直流持续高增长，传统继电器表现稳定，2023H1营收/归母净利润同比+13.68%/+13.75%。

二次设备2023H1保持稳健、营收同比+10.78%，归母净利润同比+10.67%。

2023Q2龙头国电南瑞、四方股份等利润表现亮眼。1)营收利润稳增。2023H1/2023Q2二次设备收入395.83/241.83亿元，同比+10.78%/+9.81%,归母净利润39.43 /30.12亿元，同比+10.67 %/+8.30%。2)毛利率水平持稳。2023H1/2023Q2板块毛利率为26.99%/28.21%，同比+0.21pct/+0.09pct。

3)2023H1应收账款/合同负债/存货较年初+7.50%/+0.43%/+11.01%，经营现金流出6.03亿元。4)公司层面，龙头国电南瑞及四方股份延续稳健表现，网外业务增速均快于网内。

一次设备2023H1保持稳健，营收同比+14%，归母净利润同比+19%，2023Q2盈利略微下滑。

1)收入稳增，利润增长更快。2023H1/2023Q2一次设备行业收入2329.26/1237.77亿元，同比+14%/8%，归母净利润172.04/94.85亿元，同比+19%/-9%。

分板块看，2023H1/2023Q2特高压&高压营收同比+23%/+15%，归母净利润同比+16%/-6%;中压电气营收同比+21%/+17%，归母净利润同比-41%/-111%;低压电器营收同比+15%/-1%，归母净利润同比-15%/-23%;智能电表营收同比+21%/+26%，归母净利润同比+111%/+118%;电线电缆营收同比-0.7%/+0.5%，归母净利润同比+21%/+29%。智能电网覆盖率上升带来智能电表需求上涨，智能电表板块盈利增长明显。

2)盈利能力略有改善，2023H1/2023Q2毛利率分别为27.84%/25.82%，同比+1.09pct/-6.60pct。3)2023H1应收账款/合同负债/存货较年初+16%/-8%/+14%，经营性现金净流入42.98亿元，同比大幅改善。

风险提示：

电网投资不及预期，竞争加剧，市场拓展不及预期等。

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report sayingDemand is still at the bottom of the cycleTraditional OEM industry is generally under pressure, stimulus policy expectations + last year's low base and other factors, 2023H2 is expected to be better than H1.Power grid investment is still stable and slightly increasing in 2023The on-grid market still emphasizes the structural direction of UHV, intelligent distribution network and dispatching, while the off-grid power generation side + overseas high-view demeanor drives a high increase in orders. Pan-industrial control field: focus on Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ), recommend Ray Sai Intelligence (002979.SZ); main network & UHV focus on: Pinggao Electric (600312.SH), etc., focus on: China West Power (601179.SH), etc.; go out to sea & use power side to recommend: Golden Plate Technology (688676.SH), pay attention to: Sowen Electric Power (300982.SZ), etc. Other power equipment recommended: South Network Technology (301355.SZ), attention: Kelu Electronics (002121.SZ) and so on.

The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:

Industrial control & 2023H1 income of power equipment industry + 14%, net profit of home + 11%, income of 2023Q2 + 12%, net profit of home + 3%.

1) the industry 2023H1 revenue & return to the mother of the net profit has increased steadily. The industry-wide 2023H1 achieved income / return net profit of RMB 3861.72 / 29.597 billion, which was 11% higher than that of the same period last year. Among them, 2023Q2 income is 211.494 billion yuan, + 12% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 15.986 billion yuan,-3% compared with the same period last year. 2) the gross profit margin of the industry as a whole decreased slightly. The gross profit margin of the 2023H1/2023Q2 industry is 22.88% 2023Q2 22.37%, year-on-year-0.18pct/-0.98pct (2023Q2 chain-1.13pct).

3) compared with the beginning of the year, 2023H1 accounts receivable / contract liabilities / inventory + 13% Maxima 4% Universe 10%, which may be due to the increase in revenue scale. 4) the net inflow of 2023H1 operating cash flow was 13.566 billion yuan, which was significantly higher than that of the same period last year.

The development momentum of 2023H1 in the industrial control industry is steady, and domestic leading enterprises have grasped the structural opportunities of advanced manufacturing and maintained good growth. Leading enterprises such as Huichuan Technology and Hongfa shares have outstanding performance, and Hongfa shares still maintain steady growth under the downward pressure of the economy.

1) both revenue and profit of 2023H1 have increased. The income of 2023H1/2023Q2 industrial control plate was 469.58 / 26.003 billion yuan, which was 24.75% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 54.51 / 3.064 billion yuan, which was + 27.69% / + 12.92% compared with the same period last year. 2) the profit margin of 2023H1 increased slightly. The gross profit margin of the 2023H1/2023Q2 sector is 31.52% pct/+0.52pct 31.88%, which is + 0.74% year on year.

3) 2023H1 accounts receivable / contract liabilities / inventory compared with the beginning of the year + 13.54% Universe 9.02% Maximi 0.83%, operating cash inflow of 4.416 billion yuan, operating cash flow level increased significantly. 4) at the company level, the 2023H1 revenue / return net profit of Huichuan Technology, the leading industrial control company, is + 19.76% and 5.17% compared with the same period last year, and the development momentum remains stable and good. Relay leader Hongfa shares continued high growth in high voltage DC, traditional relay performance is stable, 2023H1 revenue / return net profit year-on-year + 13.68% Universe 13.75%.

The secondary equipment 2023H1 remains robust, with revenue + 10.78% and net profit + 10.67% compared with the same period last year.

2023Q2 leading Guodian Nanrui, Sifang shares and other profit performance is bright. 1) steady increase in revenue and profit. The income of 2023H1/2023Q2 secondary equipment is 395.83 / 24.183 billion yuan, 9.81% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 39.43 / 3.012 billion yuan, + 10.67% / + 8.30% year-on-year. 2) the gross profit margin remains stable. The gross profit margin of 2023H1/2023Q2 plate is 26.99% Universe 28.21%, year-on-year + 0.21pct/+0.09pct.

3) 2023H1 accounts receivable / contract liabilities / inventory compared with the beginning of the year + 7.50%, 0.43%, 11.01%, operating cash outflow of 603 million yuan. 4) at the company level, leading Guodian Nanrui and Sifang shares continued their steady performance, and the growth rate of off-net business was faster than that of off-net business.

Once the equipment 2023H1 remained robust, the revenue was + 14% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of home was + 19%, and the profit of 2023Q2 declined slightly.

1) income increases steadily and profits grow faster. The income of 2023H1/2023Q2 primary equipment industry is 2329.26 / 123.777 billion yuan, which is 8% from the same period last year. The net profit is 172.04 / 9.485 billion yuan from the same period last year, and 9% from the same period last year.

In terms of sectors, 2023H1/2023Q2 UHV & HV revenue year-on-year + 23% Universe 15%, homing net profit + 16% Universe 6%; medium Voltage Electric revenue year-on-year + 21% Universe 17%, homing net profit-41% Universe 111%; low voltage appliance revenue year-on-year + 15% ram 1%, homing net profit year-on-year-15% Universe 23%; Smart meter revenue year-on-year + 21% Accord 26%, homing net profit year-on-year + 111% Universe 118% Wire and cable revenue year-on-year-0.7% take 0.5%, return to the home net profit year-on-year + 21% take 29%. With the increase of smart grid coverage, the demand for smart meters has increased, and the profits of smart meters have increased significantly.

2) the profitability has improved slightly. The gross profit margin of 2023H1/2023Q2 is 27.84%, 25.82% respectively, which is + 1.09pct/-6.60pct compared with the same period last year. 3) compared with the beginning of the year, 2023H1 accounts receivable / contract liabilities / inventory + 16% Maxima 8% Universe 14%, net inflow of operating cash 4.298 billion yuan, a substantial improvement over the same period last year.

Risk Tips:

The investment in power grid is not as expected, the competition is intensified, and the market expansion is not as expected.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

东吴证券：工控在投资偏弱下仍有结构性机会 电网投资下半年整体可期

Dongwu Securities: Industrial Control still has structural opportunities under weak investment, and grid investment can be expected overall in the second half of the year

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东吴证券：工控在投资偏弱下仍有结构性机会电网投资下半年整体可期