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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For I-Control Holdings Limited's (HKG:1402) Shares After Tumbling 26%

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 8, 2023 18:07

i-Control Holdings Limited (HKG:1402) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 41% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 9x, you may still consider i-Control Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 42.1x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For instance, i-Control Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for i-Control Holdings

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SEHK:1402 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry September 8th 2023
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on i-Control Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as i-Control Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 16%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 108% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's about the same on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's curious that i-Control Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends would weigh down the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On i-Control Holdings' P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, i-Control Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of i-Control Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look similar to current market expectations. When we see average earnings with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for i-Control Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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