The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Crystal International Group Limited (HKG:2232), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.
Following this downgrade, Crystal International Group's five analysts are forecasting 2023 revenues to be US$2.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to be US$0.06, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.064 in 2023. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a small dip in EPS estimates to boot.
View our latest analysis for Crystal International Group
Analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$0.49, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Crystal International Group's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Crystal International Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$0.84 and the most bearish at US$0.31 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 0.5% decline in revenue until the end of 2023. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Crystal International Group is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Crystal International Group. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Crystal International Group going forwards.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Crystal International Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.