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Bonjour Holdings Limited (HKG:653) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 35% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 23, 2023 18:24

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Bonjour Holdings Limited (HKG:653) shares are down a considerable 35% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.

Even after such a large drop in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.4x, you may still consider Bonjour Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for Bonjour Holdings

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:653 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry August 23rd 2023

How Has Bonjour Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Bonjour Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Bonjour Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Bonjour Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Bonjour Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 70%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 87% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 47% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Bonjour Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Bonjour Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Bonjour Holdings' P/S remain high even after its stock plunged. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Bonjour Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Bonjour Holdings (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored).

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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