As you might know, Equillium, Inc. (NASDAQ:EQ) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$9.1m exceeding analyst forecasts by 49%, and statutory losses of US$0.10 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Equillium
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Equillium is for revenues of US$31.8m in 2023. This implies a small 5.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.55 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$25.9m and losses of US$0.64 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
The consensus price target fell 35%, to US$6.06, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Equillium, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$2.80 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 11% annualised decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 105% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. It's pretty clear that Equillium's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Equillium's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Equillium analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Equillium is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.