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What BGMC International Limited's (HKG:1693) 29% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 10, 2023 18:23

BGMC International Limited (HKG:1693) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think BGMC International's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Construction industry is similar at about 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for BGMC International

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:1693 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry August 10th 2023

What Does BGMC International's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that BGMC International's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for BGMC International, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is BGMC International's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like BGMC International's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 42% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 64% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 16% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that BGMC International is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From BGMC International's P/S?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now BGMC International's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that BGMC International trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - BGMC International has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of BGMC International's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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