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Has CMOC Group Limited's (HKG:3993) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 30, 2023 20:44

Most readers would already be aware that CMOC Group's (HKG:3993) stock increased significantly by 25% over the past month. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to CMOC Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for CMOC Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for CMOC Group is:

9.2% = CN¥5.6b ÷ CN¥61b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every HK$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of HK$0.09.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

CMOC Group's Earnings Growth And 9.2% ROE

On the face of it, CMOC Group's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 10%, we may spare it some thought. Even so, CMOC Group has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 12%. Given the slightly low ROE, it is likely that there could be some other aspects that are driving this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

As a next step, we compared CMOC Group's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 27% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SEHK:3993 Past Earnings Growth July 31st 2023

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is 3993 worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether 3993 is currently mispriced by the market.

Is CMOC Group Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

CMOC Group has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 30% (or a retention ratio of 70%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Additionally, CMOC Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 35%. However, CMOC Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 18% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that CMOC Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. That is, a decent growth in earnings backed by a high rate of reinvestment. However, we do feel that that earnings growth could have been higher if the business were to improve on the low ROE rate. Especially given how the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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