The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a weekly report on the automotive industry stating that in the medium to long term, it focuses on the rise of independence and incremental component opportunities under the trend of electric intelligence. On a one-year basis, in the context of a price war, the Tesla (TSLA.US) and BYD (002594.SZ) industry chains, which have high capacity utilization rates and high bicycle profits, and Yutong Bus, which benefits from the new energy cycle of overseas buses, are the alpha varieties of the sector. recommends1) The main line of cost reduction in localization (seat, headlight and other industrial chains):Jifeng Co., Ltd. (603997.SH), etc.;2) Aftermarket (testing, tires, batteries, etc.):Camel Shares (601311.SH);3) Tesla and BYD industrial chain:Topu Group (601689.SH), etc.;4) Belt and Road:Yutong Bus (600066.SH);5) Car+AI:Desai Seaway (002920.SZ), etc.

The core views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:

Monthly production and sales

According to the China Automobile Association, automobile production and sales reached 2.561 million units and 2.62 million units respectively in June, +9.8% and +10.1%, respectively, and +2.5% and +4.8% year-on-year respectively. In June, passenger car production and sales reached 2,219,000 units and 2.268,000 units, respectively, +10.4% and +10.6% month-on-month, and -0.9% and +2.1% year-on-year respectively. In June, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 342,000 units and 355,000 units respectively, +6.3% and +7.3%, respectively; year-on-year, +31.3% and +26.3%; in June, production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 784,000 units and 806,000 units, respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of +32.8% and +35.2%, accounting for 30.7% of the market.

Weekly data

According to Shanghai Insurance data, from July 10 to July 16, 2023, there were 377,700 domestic passenger cars licensed, -0.23% year-on-year, +12.52%, of which 137,700 new energy passenger cars were licensed, +45.49% year-on-year, +15.62%; in July (0703-0716), a total of 713,400 domestic passenger cars were licensed, -16.79%, of which 2569,000 new energy passenger cars were licensed, -11.06% year-on-year.

This week's quotes

This week (202307017-20230721) CS cars fell 3.52%, CS passenger cars fell 2.7%, CS commercial vehicles fell 1.43%, CS auto parts fell 4.68%, CS car sales and service fell 5.55%, CS motorcycles and others fell 1.37%, electric vehicles fell 4.21%, smart cars fell 5.27%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.96% over the same period, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.12%. CS cars are weaker than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index of 1.55 pct and weaker than the Shanghai Composite Index of 1.39 pct.

Cost tracking

As of July 14, 2023, rubber and steel prices were +2%/-0.0% compared with the same period last year, +2%/-0.6%, respectively; as of July 10, 2023, the prices of float flat glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots were +8.5%/-1.7%/-12.6%, respectively, compared with the same period last month, -7.2%/-0.5%/+3.4%, respectively.

Market attention

1) Advances in intelligent driving (Tesla HW4.0, FSD V12 version, FSD's progress in entering China, new power car companies, city NGP coverage rate, domestic and foreign policies, etc.); 2) Robotics progress (2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, AI Day, robot product progress of various brands, etc.); 3) Varieties that are expected to exceed expectations in the interim report (Xinquan Co., Ltd., Tuopu Group, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. have been announced in advance).

Investment advice

Recommendation 1) Main line of cost reduction of localization (seats, headlights, etc.): Jifeng Co., Ltd. (603997.SH), Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799.SH); 2) Aftermarket (testing, tires, batteries, etc.): Camel shares (601311.SH); 3) Tesla and BYD industry chain: Topu Group (6.3), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ), Xinquan Co., Ltd. (), Xinquan Co., Ltd. (), etc.; 4) Belt and Road: Yutong: Yutong 601689.SH 603179.SH 603305.SH 600933.SH Bus (600066.SH); 5) Car+AI: Desai Siwei (002920.SZ), Coboda (603786.SH), Junsheng Electronics (600699.SH), etc.

Risk warning

The risk that the automobile supply chain is tight, economic recovery falls short of expectations, and sales volume falls short of expectations.