Technology stocks, which have experienced a severe setback, have had a difficult rebound and continued to drag down the market. Tesla and Netflix, which fell sharply on Thursday, both turned down in early trading, and the NASDAQ failed to successfully rebound. However, with the support of component stocks such as Intel, which has rebounded, and Johnson & Johnson & Johnson, whose earnings are improving, the Dow has narrowly maintained its gains for 10 days for the first time in six years.
The commentator said that US stocks faced pressure from large fluctuations on Friday. Institutions estimate that before the NASDAQ 100 index downgrades the weight of blue-chip technology stocks to take effect next week, the size of stock and index options contracts due this Friday is about 2.4 trillion US dollars.
The Federal Reserve will hold a major interest rate meeting next week. During the quiet period of Fed officials this week, investors place more importance on the financial reports of listed companies. The financial reports of some companies, led by Tesla, have become an important force in influencing the overall market. According to statistics, of the S&P 500 constituent stocks that have published quarterly reports so far, the performance of 75% is better than Wall Street expectations, but it is still lower than the average share of 80% in the last three years.
Tesla and Netflix failed to give tech giants a good start to the earnings season this week, and tech stocks became the biggest downward pressure source for US stocks throughout the week. Next week, US stocks will be tested by the financial reports of the other three major technology stocks Meta, Microsoft, and Google. Netflix's performance has cast a shadow over the future of the Meta Quarterly Report.
In the foreign exchange market, the yen received the most attention on Friday. The media said the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to resolve the side effects of super easing and will not adjust the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy next week. The possibility that the Bank of Japan will launch an eagle next week declined, and the yen dived intraday against the US dollar, rapidly falling by more than 1%. Supported by the weakening yen, the US dollar index accelerated its upward trend and continued to reach a new high level over the past week. The rise of the offshore renminbi, which rebounded sharply on Thursday, came to a standstill, falling back more than 100 points at one point.
US Treasury bonds, whose yields increased on Thursday, showed mixed results on Friday. Short-term bond yields rose intraday, and prices continued to fall. Two-year US Treasury yields were once close to the weekly high that was refreshed on Thursday. Benchmark ten-year US Treasury yields fell, breaking away from the one-week high created by rising more than 10 basis points on Thursday, but after the yield dived last week due to a slowdown in US CPI and PPI inflation exceeding expectations, yields did not continue to decline sharply this week. Meanwhile, the accelerated decline in European treasury bond yields this week is mainly due to the UK's announcement that the June CPI slowed more than expected. The Dutch central bank governor, who is seen as a hawkish bank, unexpectedly gave up a pigeon, saying he wasn't sure whether to raise interest rates in September.
Among commodities, US wheat futures continue to fluctuate due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. According to CCTV reports, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that measures will be taken to protect Ukrainian ports and infrastructure related to the Black Sea Food Initiative, and has directed a series of actions to continue the Black Sea Food Corridor. The intraday decline in wheat futures accelerated, and the intraday decline in US stocks widened to more than 4%, but prices rose sharply due to heightened supply risks from Russia and Ukraine in the previous three days, and the cumulative rise continued throughout the week.
Under the impact of the dollar's rebound, gold continued to fall below a six-week high. With Tuesday's big rebound, it maintained gains throughout the week, but gains were clearly moderated compared to last week when the US dollar fell sharply. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine is even more tense. International crude oil, which has already been helped by additional production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, has continued to rise in the last month. Natural gas performed even better this week. Continued hot weather stimulated demand, and US gas rose in a single week for the first time in a month.
The commentary said that investors were encouraged by China's favorable policies this week. As “Russia and Russia” cut production, there are more and more signs that the oil market will run out of supply in the next few months, and tight supply in the second half of the year will help oil prices rise. The downward trend in inflation is expected to continue, but inflation is currently not the biggest enemy of gold bulls. Interest rates and the US dollar are the only ones that determine how long the dollar remains strong will determine whether the price of gold is likely to reach a new high by the end of this year. Recently, we are closely watching the Fed's decision next week to see how Federal Reserve Chairman Powell releases the signal of whether to raise interest rates for the last time this month.
The NASDAQ fell two times in a row throughout the week, and the Dow narrowly rose ten times in a row to hit the biggest weekly gain in four months. The chip stock index rebounded, but Nvidia still fell
The three major US stock indexes collectively opened higher, with mixed intraday performance. The S&P 500 continued to rise throughout the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average only turned down in the short term at the beginning of the session. At midday trading, the S&P rose more than 0.4%, the Dow rose more than 110 points and 0.3%, then gradually recovered most of its gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose more than 0.8% at the beginning of the session, turned down in both early and midday trading, and failed to reverse the decline after falling again at the end of the session.
In the end, the three major indices continued to have mixed ups and downs at the close. The NASDAQ closed down 0.22% to 14032.81 points, falling for two consecutive days, continuing to break the low level since July 12. S&P, which fell nearly 0.7% on Thursday, closed up slightly by 0.03% to 4536.34 points, not close to the high level since April last year, which was refreshed on Wednesday. The Dow closed up 2.51%, a slight increase of nearly 0.01%. It narrowly closed higher for ten consecutive trading days, breaking the longest continuous rise since February 2017 at 35227.69 points. After hitting a new high since April last year for two consecutive days, it hit a new closing high since the end of March last year for two consecutive days.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index closed down 0.26% and closed down for three consecutive days, continuing to hit a new low since July 12. Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed down 0.35%, continuing to fall from the high level since February 3, which was refreshed on Wednesday.
Major US stock indexes have had various ups and downs this week. The Dow rose 2.08%, rising more than 2% for the second week in a row. Russell 2000 rose 1.51%, and both S&P rose for two consecutive weeks. S&P rose 0.69%, far less than the 2.4% increase last week, the biggest increase since June 16. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, which fell more than 2% on Thursday, fell 0.16% and 0.9% respectively, falling back after rising more than 3% last week, the biggest weekly gain since at least the end of March.
Most of the major sectors of the S&P 500 continued to close higher, with utilities rising 1.5% and healthcare rising about 1%. For two consecutive days, energy supported by rising oil prices rose 0.8%, and Tesla's non-essential consumer goods rose slightly. Among the four sectors that closed down, Meta and Netflix's communications services fell 0.5%, industry fell nearly 0.5%, and finance and Nvidia's IT fell by about 0.3%.
Only four sectors experienced a steady decline this week. Communications services fell 3%, non-essential consumer goods fell more than 2%, real estate fell 0.5%, and IT fell nearly 0.1%. Health care and energy had a cumulative increase of about 3.5%, the best performance, with finance rising nearly 3% and utilities rising more than 2%.
Among the constituent stocks of the Dow, Intel led the way at the close. MSD, P&G, Disney, and the sole energy stock Chevron all rose more than 1%. Johnson & Johnson, which surged 6% after announcing earnings on Thursday, quickly turned up after opening slightly lower. They also closed more than 1%, rising more than 6% this week, making the Dow stand higher throughout the week.
A number of leading technology stocks turned down midmarket, with most of them falling progressively throughout the week. Tesla, which closed down nearly 10% on Thursday and recorded the biggest decline in three months, opened with a decline of nearly 2%. After turning down less than half an hour after opening, it fell more than 2% in early trading. It closed down 1.1%. It fell 1.1%, falling continuously for three days until the low level since June 29, with a continuous decline of 7.6% this week, the worst performance among blue-chip technology stocks.
Among FAANMG's top six tech stocks, Netflix closed down more than 8% on Thursday and recorded the biggest decline in seven months, and continued to fall nearly 2.3%; Facebook's parent company Meta closed down 2.7%, falling two days to a low since July 10; Microsoft, which reached a record high on Tuesday, closed down 0.9%, falling three days in a row to a low level since July 13; Apple rose nearly 1% at the beginning of the market, turned down 0.6%, continuing to fall 0.6% from the closing history high created on Wednesday; while four consecutive weeks, Google's parent company, which has been at a low level since July 12, has been refreshed over and over again Alphabet closed up about 0.7%, and Amazon rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session. It closed slightly higher and remained stable at its low level since July 11.
Of these tech stocks, only Apple, which rose nearly 0.7% this week, saw a cumulative rise of more than 4.7%, Alphabet fell 4.3%, Amazon and Netflix fell more than 3%, and Microsoft fell 0.4%.
Chip stocks rebounded after two consecutive days of overall decline, ending a trend of losing the market over the past few days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 1.9% at the beginning of the session, closing more than 1.3%. The semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed up 0.9%, falling 1% and 1.4% respectively this week. Among chip stocks, Qualcomm rose more than 3% at the close, Intel rose nearly 2%, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Ansemi, Microchip Technology, and Ram Research rose more than 1%, and AMD rose 0.6%, while Nvidia, which rose nearly 0.8% at the beginning of the session, fell by about 2.7% in early trading and closed down about 2.7%. After falling more than 3% on Thursday, it fell by about 2.6% this week; TSMC's US stock maintained a downward trend after opening slightly higher; it had fallen by more than 1% in early trading and closed down 0.6%.
The performance of many AI concept stocks that plummeted on Thursday was mixed. At the close, Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 4%, C3.ai (AI) fell more than 2%, while BigBear.AI (BBAI) rose more than 3%, Adobe (ADBE) rose nearly 0.7%, and SoundHound.ai (SOUN) closed.
The bank stock index fell sharply, but rose sharply throughout the week. The KBW Bank Index (BKX), a banking index that has been rising for four days in a row on Thursday and has been high since March 10 for two consecutive days, closed down about 0.7%, rising nearly 6.9% this week; the regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed down nearly 1%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) fell nearly 1.3%, continuing to fall from the high level since March 10, which was refreshed for three consecutive days on Wednesday. This week, they rose 7.6% and 7.5%, respectively.
Key regional banks retreated. Zions Bancorporation (ZION), which rose nearly 10% on Thursday, fell 4.7%, Alliance Western Bank (WAL) fell 0.3%, Keycorp (KEY) fell 3.8%, and Western Pacific United Bank (PACW) fell 2.4%.
Popular Chinese securities generally rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, then declined somewhat. It closed up more than 0.4% and fell about 3% this week. The China Stock Exchange ETF KWEB closed up about 0.4%, while CQQQ fell nearly 0.2%. By the close, NIO Auto had risen more than 2%, JD and Pinduoduo had risen more than 1%, Station B had risen 0.6%, Alibaba had risen 0.3%, while Xiaopeng Motor had fallen more than 3%, Baidu and Ideal Auto had dropped more than 1%, and Tencent fans had dropped nearly 0.8%.
Among the individual stocks that released financial reports, the railway freight company CSX Corporation (CSX), whose revenue for the second quarter was lower than expected, fell more than 4% intraday; American Express (AXP), whose EPS profit for the second quarter was higher than expected but revenue was lower than expected, fell more than 5% in early trading; car dealer AutoNation (AN) still fell more than 10% intraday; although revenue and profit for the second quarter were higher than expected, the decline narrowed to less than 4%; Publisher Scholastic (SCHL) rose more than 10% intraday after EPS's profit for the fourth fiscal quarter was higher than expected and the repurchase scale would increase by $100 million; the financial company Capital One Financial (COF), which had lower revenue for the second quarter but higher than expectations, turned down after rising more than 1% at the beginning of the session and turned up in early trading; after announcing that second-quarter earnings were better than expected and raised guidelines for the third quarter and full year, paint, glass and chemical supplier PPG Industries (PPG) turned up early in early trading.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index has been rising for four consecutive days. After hitting a new high since June 19 on Wednesday, the European Stoxx 600 Index hit a new closing high since June 16 for the second day in a row.
This week, the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.99% for two weeks in a row. The increase was far lower than last week's increase of nearly 3%. Last week was the biggest weekly gain since March 31. Across all sectors, personal and household goods led the way, thanks to French gaming giant Ubisoft, whose net orders in the first quarter were higher than the guideline, surging 5.2%, which also pushed French stocks to lead the way among European countries.
Meanwhile, the basic resources sector led the decline by 1.5%, mainly due to the sharp decline of 13.8% of the Swedish steel company SSAB, which had its operating profit cut in half in the second quarter, ranking first among Stokke's 600 constituent stocks. Technology fell more than 0.4%, due to a 4.2% drop in the German software giant, which lowered important cloud sales guidelines for the whole year. As a result, the German stock index also fell alone in European stock indexes.
Among other individual stocks, Swedish commercial real estate giant SBB plummeted 12.9% after suddenly announcing the end of negotiations with Canadian asset management company Brookfield, making the prospects for obtaining liquidity through the sale of shares in the educational institution EduCo bleak.
The Stoxx 600 index continued to rise progressively this week. The increase was far lower than last week's increase of nearly 3%. Last week was the biggest weekly gain since March 31. The stock indexes of all countries have also been rising continuously for two weeks, but with the exception of British stocks, which rose more than 3%, the gains of other stock indexes were far less than last week.
The various sectors failed to continue their collective rise this week. Technology, which rose 6% last week, led the decline by 4.6%. Last week it rose about 5.7%, and basic resources second only to technology fell by about 2.7%. However, real estate, which rose more than 5% last week, continued to rise sharply, rising more than 4%. Oil and gas, supported by rising crude oil, accelerated its rise by about 3.8% this week.
The yen dived intraday and the US dollar index hit a one-week high in a row, the biggest weekly gain in February, and the offshore renminbi fell
After the media said the Bank of Japan would not adjust the YCC policy next week, the yen's intraday decline rapidly widened to more than 1%, falling for four consecutive days. The dollar rose sharply against the yen in early European stock trading. European stocks were close to 142.00 in the intraday period, hitting a new high since July 10, to breaking the high set by 145.00 on June 30, close to the high since November 10 last year. It rose more than 1.3% during the day and more than 2% throughout the week.
The ICE US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell below 100.80 to a new daily low in the Asian market, falling less than 0.2% intraday. European stocks rose above 101.00 in early trading, and US stocks were close to 101.20 in early trading, breaking the intraday high since last Wednesday, July 12, for two consecutive days, rising 0.3% intraday.
By the close of the US stock market on Friday, the US dollar index was above 101.00, rising nearly 0.2% during the day, rising nearly 1.2% this week, the biggest weekly gain in two months. The Bloomberg US dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose nearly 0.4%, continued to break the high level since July 10. It rose nearly 1.1% this week, and both the US dollar index rose for four consecutive days, rebounding after setting the biggest weekly decline since November last year.
Other non-US currencies other than the yen also generally fell. The pound fell below 1.2820 before the US stock market and continued to hit a new low since July 10. It fell nearly 0.4% during the day, falling for six consecutive days, the longest continuous decline since the end of September last year. US stocks fell below 1.1110 in early trading and continued to hit a new low since July 12, falling nearly 0.2% during the day.
The offshore renminbi (CNH), which once surged 650 points in the intraday period on Thursday, fell again and again after reaching a new daily high of 7.1641 in early trading. European stocks continued to decline after falling in early trading. US stocks fell below 7.19 to 7.1914 in early trading, falling 163 points during the day, still far from the new intraday low since July 10 after falling 7.23 on Wednesday. At 4:59 Beijing time on July 22, the offshore renminbi was 7.1881 yuan against the US dollar, down 130 points from the end of the session in New York on Thursday. It fell back after ending four consecutive declines on Thursday. It fell 297 points this week after two weeks of continuous gains.
High-risk cryptocurrencies have rebounded slightly. Bitcoin (BTC) returned to a new daily high of $30,000 in midday trading on Friday, falling below 29,600 US dollars on Tuesday. It rebounded more than 300 US dollars and rose more than 1% from the intraday daily low of European stocks. US stocks closed slightly below 30,000 US dollars, rising slightly by about 0.4% in the last 24 hours, and falling about 1% in the last 7 days.
The yield on two-year British bonds fell nearly 30 basis points throughout the week, and the yield on US bonds rebounded 7 basis points during the same period
European treasury bond prices. The yield on the UK's 10-year benchmark treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, which was roughly flat on Thursday, still far exceeding the low since June 1, which fell 4.15% intraday on Wednesday; 2-year British Treasury yields closed at 4.88%, falling 5 basis points during the day, close to the low since June 15, which was refreshed on Wednesday; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German treasury bonds closed at 2.46%, falling 2 basis points during the day, still far from the low level since June 28, which was refreshed on Wednesday; 2-year German bond yields closed at 3.08%, falling 1 base point during the day, still far from Wednesday's refresh rate of 1 base point. The new low since June 14th.
This week, when the UK's CPI slowed beyond expectations in June and the Bank of the Netherlands governor unexpectedly went out of his way, European bond yields fell for the second week in a row. The decline in yield on British bonds surpassed that of Eurozone treasury bonds, and the decline in short-term bond yields surpassed that of long-term bonds. The yield on 10-year British bonds fell by about 18 basis points cumulatively, the yield on 2-year British bonds fell by about 29 basis points; the yield on 10-year German bonds fell by about 5 basis points, and the yield on 2-year German bonds fell by about 10 basis points.
The yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond reached a new daily high of 3.86% at the beginning of the European market session, then fluctuated and fell back. At one point, it fell below a new daily low of 3.81%. Breaking away from hitting 3.87% on Thursday and the refreshed high level since Wednesday, July 12, US stocks rebounded slightly. By the end of the bond market, it was about 3.83%, falling 2 basis points during the intraday period. It was roughly the same level as last Friday, stopping the sharp downward trend of falling about 23 basis points last week.
The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below a new low of 4.82% before the European stock market. The US stock market had been rising 4.87% intraday since July 11, approaching the high set on Thursday since July 11. By the end of the bond market, it was about 4.84%, falling less than 1 basis point during the intraday period, with a cumulative increase of about 7 basis points this week after falling about 18 basis points last week.
US wheat futures fell more than 4% and still rose more than 5% throughout the week
The main wheat futures contract traded on the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) in the US, which closed slightly lower on Thursday, continued to decline on Friday.
After Ukraine announced action to guarantee the Black Sea Food Corridor, the intraday decline in wheat futures increased over and over again. US stocks fell more than 4% intraday and closed down 4.2%. The closing price was slightly below $7.00 per bushel, falling from the closing high set on Wednesday since June 26. Due to a sharp closing of 8.5% on Tuesday, wheat futures were able to make a cumulative increase of about 5.3% this week, rising for two consecutive weeks.
After Russia announced on Monday that it would stop implementing the Black Sea grain export agreement, the Russian-Ukrainian grain export situation deteriorated dramatically. Ukraine alleges that food trade facilities in its Black Sea ports have been attacked by the Russian military. Both Russia and Ukraine have warned that food carriers in each other's ports in the Black Sea are at risk of being attacked. From Tuesday to Thursday, wheat futures accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 10%.
Crude oil rose four weeks in a row, US oil rose twice in a row to a three-month high, and US natural gas rose steadily in a single week for the first time in a month
International crude oil futures maintained their upward trend throughout the day on Friday, finally closing higher for two consecutive days and the third day of the last six trading days.
US WTI crude oil futures for September closed up 1.88% to $77.07 per barrel, a new high since April 25; Brent's September crude oil futures closed up 1.80% to $81.07 per barrel, breaking the closing high since July 13, approaching the high since April 24 set on July 13.
This week, U.S. oil rose about 2.3%, and crude oil rose 1.5% for four consecutive weeks. The increase was roughly the same as last week, not as high as last week when Saudi Arabia and Russia both announced new production cuts. Last week, U.S. oil and CNB rose more than 4% in a single week for the first time since April 6.
US gasoline and gas futures failed to continue their sharp rise. NYMEX August gasoline futures closed up 2.1% to $2.8018 per gallon, breaking the high since April 14, rising for four consecutive days, with a cumulative rise of about 6% this week for four weeks. NYMEX August gas futures, which rebounded sharply on Thursday, closed down 1.60% to $2.7130 per million British thermal units, leaving behind the closing high since June 30 created by a rise of nearly 6% on Thursday. This week is still rising 6.9%, with a cumulative weekly rise of about 3% since the beginning of this month, with a cumulative decline of about 39% this year.
Lundong fell back and stopped for two weeks, gold fell and continued to rise for three weeks
Most of London's basic metals futures fell on Friday. Luntong, Len Zinc, Len Nickel, and Lensk, which rebounded on Thursday, fell back, and the lead fell by more than 2%, breaking the one-week low set on Wednesday. Lundtong, Len Nickel, and Lensk are all close to the one-week lows they set on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Lun Aluminum and Lun Lead continued to rise for two days. Lun Aluminum continued to break away from their one-week low, and Lun Lead rose more than 1% to their highest level since late June.
With the exception of lead, which has been rising by nearly 0.9% for two weeks, all other basic metals have experienced a steady decline this week. Lunnickel led the decline by about 4%, and Lundong fell more than 2%, all of which stopped rising for two weeks. Lun Aluminum, which led a rise of more than 6% last week, fell more than 3%, and Lun Zinc fell more than 2%, all of which returned to a decline after ending three weeks of continuous decline last week. Renxi, which had previously been rising for three weeks, fell nearly 0.2%.
New York gold futures continued to decline after European stocks turned down in early trading. US stocks reached a new low of 1958.8 US dollars in the intraday period, falling 0.6% during the day. In the end, COMEX's August gold futures closed down 0.22% to 1966.60 US dollars/ounce, continuing to fall from the closing high level since June 6, when they rebounded sharply on Tuesday.
Gold rose 0.11% in the current cycle, rising for three weeks. Although it rose nearly 1.3% on Tuesday, the biggest daily increase since April 13, the whole week only closed on Tuesday. The full week's increase was far less than last week. Last week's increase was nearly 1.7%, the biggest weekly increase since April 6.
