Zhitong Financial APP learned that Oriental Securities released a research report saying that the film summer recovery is accelerated and the performance is excellent, and the relevant companies are expected to benefit. It is recommended to focus on: 1) good performance in advance performance; 2) production and distribution of high-quality films; 3) stable cinema market; 4) companies qualified to introduce high-quality foreign films. Specific companies suggest to pay attention to three lines: 1) cinema line direction (cinema line, projection): Wanda Film (002739.SZ), Chinese Film (600977.SH), Shanghai Film (601595.SH), etc.; 2) content direction (investment film): a-share Chinese Film (600977.SH), Light Media (300251.SZ), Beijing Culture (000802.SZ), etc.; 3) ticketing platform: Hong Kong stock cat's eye entertainment (01896).
The main points of Oriental Securities are as follows:
Demand side: the recovery is accelerating, the box office in the first half of 2023 is higher than the pre-epidemic level, and the overall summer performance is expected to exceed expectations.
At present, the box office level, movie attendance, and average ticket price in the first half of the 2023 summer (6-7) have all exceeded the pre-epidemic level, achieving a cumulative box office (including service charge) of 7.531 billion yuan, which is 34.65% 19.77% 24.05% 127.52% 138.78% higher than that of 17x18, 1921, and 22 years respectively. Among the two factors that affect the box office (person-time * ticket price), the ticket price increases faster, and the number of people going to the cinema is 188 million, which is 16.05% higher than that of 17Universe 18MP. In 21 / 22, the increase is 16.05%, 8.87%, 100.79%, 121.19%, and 15.65%, 14.33%, 13.03%, respectively. During the period, the themes and creations such as "missing her", "octagonal Cage" and "Changan 30,000 li" are all good, and get better market feedback. Compared with the May 1st gear, the performance was lower than that before the epidemic, and the summer performance was excellent. The summer recovery is better than in the first half of the year, and the recovery accelerated in July, and the full-year box office is expected to return to 50 billion, according to Top data.
Supply side 1: 2023 summer film supply is sufficient, imported film supply is good, head film box office share is high, supply is expected to promote the recovery of demand.
1) quantity of supply: 114 films are expected to be released during the 23-year summer vacation (as of 7.13 statistics, there may be actual changes), and there will be 121, 124, 123, and 121, respectively, showing in the summer of 21 / 22, taking into account the incompleteness of the 23-year summer data, combined with the situation in the first half of the year, it is expected that the complete data of the summer film will show good performance and adequate supply. 2) quality of supply: first, there are rich themes, such as science fiction, plot, action, animation, love and other topics to meet the diversified needs of the audience. Second, there is an ample supply of imported films, including films with good reputation, big IP, famous directors and actors, such as "Sky City" (6.1release), "Mission impossible 7: lethal liquidation (I)" (7.14release) and so on. Third, the head film box office, word-of-mouth performance is excellent. Fourth, the follow-up high-quality new films are rich in reserves. The bank believes that the richness and quality of supply may lead to a further increase in demand, contributing to the recovery of cinema consumption, and the summer performance is worth looking forward to.
Supply side 2: multi-head companies participate in production and distribution, Chinese film, Ali Pictures and Cat's Eye Entertainment "summer" participation is high.
As of July 12, the bank counted that the producers and distributors of the summer release film Top10 (box office) and the expected release film TOP20 (number of people Cat's eyes want to see) can find that there are Chinese films (participating in and distributing multiple films) involving listed companies. Introduction of imported films), Ali Pictures, Cat's Eye Entertainment (participation and distribution of multiple films), Light Media (main investment control "Tea ah second Middle School"), Wanda Film (participation "enthusiastic"), Beijing Culture (main investment control "Feng Shen I"), Shanghai Film, Hengdian Film and Television, Bona Pictures, Weibo Corp, Oneworld Culture and Entertainment, iQIYI, Inc., etc., in addition, Light Media is an important shareholder of Cat's Eye and is expected to benefit.
The branch line channel: the market concentration degree enhances, the head company market occupies the stability, the position is stable.
1) from the perspective of film investment companies, as of the first half of 23, the top three films were Wanda Pictures, Hengdian Pictures and CGV pitches, accounting for 23.10%, an increase in 1.02/2.23/3.79pp compared with the same period in 22-21-19. 2) according to the branch line company, the top three cinema lines are Zhuhai Hengqin Wanda Cinema Line, China Film Digital Cinema Line (Beijing) and Shanghai United Cinema Line, accounting for 34.33%, an increase in 2.76/4.16/5.29pp compared with the same period in 22-21-19.
Specific companies suggest to pay attention to three lines, content side (production, distribution), cinema line, ticketing platform as follows:
1) Cinema line direction (cinema line, film casting): a-share Wanda Film, Chinese Film, Shanghai Film, Hengdian Film and Television (603103.SH), Jinyi Film and Television (002905.SZ), Happy Blue Ocean (300528.SZ), Boehner Pictures (001330.SZ).
2) content direction (investment film): a-share Chinese film, light media, Beijing culture, etc.; Hong Kong stock BABA Film (01060), China Ruyi (00136).
3) ticketing platform: Hong Kong stock cat's eye entertainment (participating in the distribution of a number of films, leading ticketing platform).
Risk Tips:Consumer demand is lower than expected, film content supply is lower than expected, macroeconomic and policy risks, data statistics period.