The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, the market ushered in a peak performance forecast period for the first half of the year. Benefiting from factors such as high demand in the photovoltaic market and falling upstream silicon material prices, most photovoltaic companies achieved a sharp year-on-year increase in performance. Among them, three companies, Jingke Energy, Oujing Technology, and Qingyuan Co., Ltd., predicted net profit growth of over 300%. CICC said that as the price of silicon wafers accelerates ahead of schedule and hits bottom, it is generally optimistic about investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector in the second half of 2023.
Specifically, the 2023 semi-annual results forecast released by Jingke Energy, a leading manufacturer of photovoltaic modules, shows that it is expected to achieve net profit of 3.66 billion yuan to 4.06 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a sharp increase of 304.38%-348.58% over the previous year;
The business performance of Ou Jing Technology, whose main business is quartz crucible products, has also achieved significant growth. Oujing Technology expects net profit of 385 million yuan to 426 million yuan for the first half of the year, an increase of 318.05%-362.57% over the previous year;
Qingyuan Co., Ltd., whose main product is photovoltaic scaffolding, has also announced a preliminary performance increase for the year 2023. The company expects to achieve net profit of 100 million yuan to 120 million yuan in the first half of 2023, an increase of 251.59% to 321.91% over the previous year.
In addition, the semi-annual reports of many PV stocks are also encouraging. Many companies expect their net profit to double in the first half of the year. Aixu Co., Ltd. expects net profit for the first half of the year to be 1,260 million yuan to 1,400 million yuan, with net profit of 111.41% to 134.90%; Junda Co., Ltd. expects net profit from Homu to 900 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan over the same period, up 230% to 300%; TCL Central expects net profit for the first half of the year to be 4.480 million yuan to 4.680 million yuan, an increase of 53.57% to 60.42%; Shuangliang Energy's net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be about 580 million yuan to 680 million yuan, up 64.15% to 92.45% year on year.
Since this year, with the release of silicon production capacity, silicon prices have continued to decline, and industry costs have declined, which has become an important reason for the growth in the performance of companies in the photovoltaic industry chain.
Against this background, photovoltaic companies have begun more intense plans to expand production. According to statistics from Polaris Solar PV Network, from January to June 2023, silicon material production was expanded to 760,000 tons, silicon wafers/silicon rods/slices reached 442 GW, batteries and modules reached 1100.6 GW, and the production expansion amount exceeded 100 billion dollars.
Dongwu Securities expects silicon material output to exceed 1.5 million tons in 2023, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. Production capacity will exceed 2.6 million tons at the end of the year. Supply will further increase in 24 years, and the price of silicon materials has already dropped to 60,000/ton. It is expected that the “L bottom” will be maintained over a longer period of time.
The bank believes that the decline in industrial prices has stimulated a high increase in demand, and a new era of light storage parity has begun. In 2023, the release of silicon production capacity led to a decline in component prices, and demand for stock ground power plant projects exploded. Global installed capacity demand is expected to reach 370 GW, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. It is estimated that the country will add about 160-170 GW of new installed capacity throughout the year, an increase of more than 80% over the previous year.
The Huacheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the bottleneck in the supply of silicon materials has been lifted and prices in the industrial chain have fallen rapidly, further stimulating the demand for PV installations. The photovoltaic industry is expected to continue its high boom. Currently, the PE quantile in the industry is at a historically low level, and the cost performance ratio of investment is prominent. 1) It is recommended to focus on individual TopCon stocks that lead the N-type layout and continue to enjoy premium dividends from new technology and are expected to rise sharply in the second quarter, such as Jingke Energy, Junda Co., Ltd.; 2) It is recommended to focus on inverter stocks that benefit from high demand and rapid category expansion, such as Deutsche Co., Ltd.; 3) It is recommended to focus on the photovoltaic glass segment, which is at the bottom of the cycle and benefits from falling raw material costs in the second quarter, such asFollettetc.
Related concept stocks:
Xinte Energy (01799): The company specializes in polysilicon production, engineering construction contract services for solar and wind power plants and systems, and the operation of solar and wind power plants.
GCL Technology (03800): The company is mainly engaged in the manufacture of polysilicon and silicon wafers for companies in the photovoltaic industry, as well as the development, management and operation of environmentally friendly power plants. It is one of the four largest silicon companies in China. GCL Technology continues to expand its granular silicon production capacity. It is estimated that the production capacity of silicon materials will reach 30/400/500,000 tons in 2023 to 2025, respectively.
Follett Glass (06865): The company signed a photovoltaic glass sales cooperation agreement with Jinko Energy. It is estimated that it will sell about 489.5 million square meters of photovoltaic glass, which can meet the demand for about 77GW photovoltaic modules, with an estimated total sales volume of about 10.524 billion yuan (tax included). Follett previously announced that it has signed a sales strategy framework contract of about 8.051 billion yuan (tax included) with Zhengtai Xinneng.
Xinyi Solar (00968): At the end of 2022, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity will reach 19,800 tons/day. Guoxin Securities is expected to reach 26,800 tons/day by the end of 2023, ranking first in the industry.