Investor Anxiety Grows As VIX Index Records Dramatic Increase Amid Fed Rate Hike Concerns: Why Is Volatility Spiking Thursday?
Investor Anxiety Grows As VIX Index Records Dramatic Increase Amid Fed Rate Hike Concerns: Why Is Volatility Spiking Thursday?
The CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index, commonly known as the "fear index," surged over 20% on Thursday, reflecting the prevailing market volatility across major U.S. stock indices.
芝加哥期權交易所波動率（VIX）指數（俗稱 “恐懼指數”）週四飆升了20％以上，反映了美國主要股指當前的市場波動。
With a daily change of 20%, the VIX is on track for its best session of 2023, topping the spike seen on March 8, when it soared 18.3% following the banking failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Capital.
VIX的每日漲幅爲20％，有望創下2023年的最佳時段，超過3月8日的漲幅，當時在硅谷銀行和Signature Capital銀行倒閉後飆升了18.3％。
Chart: CBOE Volatility Index On Track For The Best 2023 Session
(1-day % change in VIX)
圖表：芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數有望迎來2023年最佳時段
（VIX 的 1 天變化百分比）
Why is Stock Market Volatility Spiking on Thursday?
爲甚麼週四股市波動率飆升？
The spike in the VIX was fueled by mounting concerns that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again in 2023, potentially with two more hikes by year-end, as indicated by the June dot plot.
正如6月點陣圖所示，人們越來越擔心美聯儲可能在2023年再次加息，到年底可能再加息兩次，這推動了VIX指數的飆升。
Wednesday's minutes from the latest June FOMC Meeting revealed an unusual dissent within the board, with a minority of members preferring a rate hike in June rather than keeping rates unchanged.
週三最近一次6月聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要顯示，董事會內部存在不尋常的異議，少數成員寧願在6月加息，而不是維持利率不變。
The minutes also indicated a strong consensus to implement further rate increases, as reflected in the macroeconomic projections, with two hikes being the median preference among Fed members.
會議紀要還表明，正如宏觀經濟預測所反映的那樣，人們強烈同意進一步加息，其中兩次加息是美聯儲成員的中位偏好。
Strong Economic Data Backed by Hawkish Fed Remarks
美聯儲鷹派言論支持強勁的經濟數據
On Thursday, better-than-expected economic data further fueled market expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
週四，好於預期的經濟數據進一步推動了市場對美聯儲加息的預期。
The ADP National Employment Report revealed an impressive 497,000 new payrolls in June, a remarkable jump from May's 278,000 and well above the forecast of 220,000.
ADP《全國就業報告》顯示，6月份新增就業人數爲49.7萬人，比5月份的27.8萬人大幅增長，遠高於預期的22萬人。
Shortly after, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a surge in the Services PMI to 53.9 in June, up from 50.3 in May and beating expectations of 51. This marks the sixth consecutive expansion reading for the private services sector.
不久之後，美國供應管理協會（ISM）報告稱，服務業採購經理人指數從5月份的50.3激增至6月份的53.9，超過了預期的51。這標誌着私營服務業連續第六次出現擴張數據。
Adding fuel to the fire, Lorie K. Logan, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a Federal Committee Member this year, stated that "more restrictive policy and rate hikes are needed for the FOMC to reach goals." She also expressed concern about the speed at which inflation will cool down and revealed her preference for a June rate hike.
火上澆油， Lorie K. Logan達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長兼首席執行官、今年的聯邦委員會成員表示：“聯邦公開市場委員會需要更嚴格的政策和加息才能實現目標。”她還對通貨膨脹降溫的速度表示擔憂，並透露她傾向於6月加息。
Traders Now Fear the Fed Will Hike Twice
交易員現在擔心美聯儲將加息兩次
All these events have led traders to anticipate an increased likelihood of Fed rate hikes.
所有這些事件都使交易者預計美聯儲加息的可能性會增加。
The probability of a 25 basis points hike in July has now risen to 95%, up from 90% yesterday.
7月份加息25個基點的可能性現已從昨天的90％上升至95％。
More worrisome is the probability of a consecutive hike in September, which has increased from yesterday's 18% to 28.5%, and the likelihood of a second rate hike in November now stands at over 40%, according to CME Group Fed Watch tool.
芝加哥商品交易所集團美聯儲觀察工具顯示，更令人擔憂的是，9月份連續加息的可能性已從昨天的18％增加到28.5％，而11月第二次加息的可能性現在已超過40％。
CME Group Fedwatch: FOMC Meeting Probabilities as of July 6
芝加哥商品交易所集團Fedwatch：截至7月6日的聯邦公開市場委員會會議概率
| MEETING DATE | 450-475 | 475-500 | 500-525 | 525-550 | 550-575 | 575-600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2023 | 5,1% | 94,9% | ||||
| 20/09/2023 | 3,6% | 67,9% | 28,5% | |||
| 01/11/2023 | 2,5% | 49,0% | 40,1% | 8,4% | ||
| 13/12/2023 | 0,2% | 6,7% | 48,2% | 37,3% | 7,6% | |
| 31/01/2024 | 1,3% | 13,6% | 46,4% | 32,4% | 6,4% | |
| 20/03/2024 | 0,4% | 4,7% | 22,7% | 42,4% | 25,1% | 4,6% |
| 會議日期 | 450-475 | 475-500 | 500-525 | 525-550 | 550-575 | 575-600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2023 | 5,1% | 94,9% | ||||
| 20/09/2023 | 3,6% | 67,9% | 28,5% | |||
| 2023 年 11 月 1 日 | 2,5% | 49,0% | 40,1% | 8,4% | ||
| 13/12/2023 | 0,2% | 6,7% | 48,2% | 37,3% | 7,6% | |
| 31/01/2024 | 1,3% | 13,6% | 46,4% | 32,4% | 6,4% | |
| 20/03/2024 | 0,4% | 4,7% | 22,7% | 42,4% | 25,1% | 4,6% |
ETFs Tracking The VIX Index
追蹤 VIX 指數的交易所買賣基金
There are several ETFs available that track the VIX index. Here are a few examples:
有幾隻追蹤VIX指數的ETF可供選擇。以下是幾個例子：
- ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXY)
- iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX)
- VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (NYSE:TVIX)
- ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:UVXY)
- ProShares VIX 短期期貨 ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：VIXY）
- iPath B 系列標準普爾 500 指數 VIX 短期期貨 ETN （紐約證券交易所代碼：VXX）
- VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX 短期 ETN （紐約證券交易所代碼：TVIX）
- ProShares Ultra VIX 短期期貨 ET （紐約證券交易所代碼：UVXY）
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXM)
Photo: Shutterstock
ProShares VIX 中期期貨ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：VIXM）
照片：Shutterstock