Singapore Airlines' (SGX:C6L) stock is up by a considerable 19% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Singapore Airlines' ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
Check out our latest analysis for Singapore Airlines
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Singapore Airlines is:
11% = S$2.2b ÷ S$20b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every SGD1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated SGD0.11 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
Singapore Airlines' Earnings Growth And 11% ROE
At first glance, Singapore Airlines seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 13%. However, while Singapore Airlines has a pretty respectable ROE, its five year net income decline rate was 15% . We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
From the 15% decline reported by the industry in the same period, we infer that Singapore Airlines and its industry are both shrinking at a similar rate.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Singapore Airlines is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Singapore Airlines Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Singapore Airlines' high LTM (or last twelve month) payout ratio of 107% suggests that the company is depleting its resources to keep up its dividend payments, and this shows in its shrinking earnings. Paying a dividend beyond their means is usually not viable over the long term. To know the 2 risks we have identified for Singapore Airlines visit our risks dashboard for free.
Moreover, Singapore Airlines has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 44% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Singapore Airlines is predicted to decline to 6.4% despite the anticipated decrease in the payout ratio. We reckon that there could probably be other factors that could be driving the forseen decline in the company's ROE.
Summary
In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Singapore Airlines' performance. While the company does have a high rate of return, its low earnings retention is probably what's hampering its earnings growth. Moreover, after studying current analyst estimates, we discovered that the company's earnings are expected to continue to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.