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Dynasty Fine Wines Group Limited (HKG:828) Shares May Have Slumped 28% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  May 19, 2023 18:17

The Dynasty Fine Wines Group Limited (HKG:828) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 32% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 9x, you may still consider Dynasty Fine Wines Group as a stock to avoid entirely with its 16x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Dynasty Fine Wines Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Dynasty Fine Wines Group

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:828 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry May 19th 2023
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Dynasty Fine Wines Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For Dynasty Fine Wines Group?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Dynasty Fine Wines Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 50% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Dynasty Fine Wines Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Dynasty Fine Wines Group's P/E

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Dynasty Fine Wines Group's very lofty P/E. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Dynasty Fine Wines Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Dynasty Fine Wines Group is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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