Shareholders might have noticed that Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX:Y92) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to S$0.59 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of ฿148b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Thai Beverage surprised by delivering a statutory profit of ฿0.64 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Thai Beverage
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Thai Beverage's 15 analysts is for revenues of ฿289.7b in 2023, which would reflect a credible 3.8% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 2.2% to ฿1.22. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ฿291.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ฿1.20 in 2023. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of S$0.83, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Thai Beverage, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at S$0.96 and the most bearish at S$0.75 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Thai Beverage is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Thai Beverage's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Thai Beverage is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Thai Beverage going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Thai Beverage has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.