Macau E&M Holding Limited's (HKG:1408) recent weak earnings report didn't cause a big stock movement. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.
View our latest analysis for Macau E&M Holding
A Closer Look At Macau E&M Holding's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Macau E&M Holding has an accrual ratio of 0.60 for the year to December 2022. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of MO$39m despite its profit of MO$9.31m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that Macau E&M Holding generated positive FCF of MO$23m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Macau E&M Holding.
Our Take On Macau E&M Holding's Profit Performance
As we discussed above, we think Macau E&M Holding's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Macau E&M Holding's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Macau E&M Holding (2 are potentially serious) you should be familiar with.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Macau E&M Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.