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Grown Up Group Investment Holdings Limited's (HKG:1842) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 17, 2023 18:33

Grown Up Group Investment Holdings Limited (HKG:1842) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. But the last month did very little to improve the 81% share price decline over the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Luxury industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may consider Grown Up Group Investment Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.1x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for Grown Up Group Investment Holdings

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:1842 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 17th 2023

How Grown Up Group Investment Holdings Has Been Performing

The revenue growth achieved at Grown Up Group Investment Holdings over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Grown Up Group Investment Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Grown Up Group Investment Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 29% last year. As a result, it also grew revenue by 29% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 14% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Grown Up Group Investment Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Grown Up Group Investment Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Grown Up Group Investment Holdings currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for Grown Up Group Investment Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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